"Japan's LNG Appetite Falls Amid Nuclear Revival, Alternative Fuels"
That headline from Energy Intelligence grabbed my attention and led me down a bit of a rabbit hole.
While looking for the proverbial rabbit, I came across an April 2023 article in Digital Refining titled "Future of LNG demand in Japan"
The subtitle was optimistic (from the point of view of DigitalRefining readers)
"As oil, coal, and other energy sources decline in the energy transition to net zero, LNG demand will remain strong in the long transition to renewables."
Translation Natural gas interests can expect superior sales performance during a long transition to RE
The article traces the history of Japan's world-leading LNG market with no mention of the dramatic increase that started in 2011.
It described Japan's 2021 net zero plan, including the following statement "In addition, the new plan included a nuclear renaissance that would more than triple the share of nuclear power in the power mix."
It reassured its readers about the plan by pointing out that natural gas continued to play a role, albeit a diminished one if the rest of the plan achieves its goals.
Here is a kicker:
"However, the plan has significant challenges, not least the long-term reliance on nuclear power to achieve the goal of net zero emissions by 2050. The ability of Japan to increase its nuclear power will have a large impact on gas and LNG demand."
The article offered additional reassurances along with a subtle suggestion for action by those who naturally seek to defend their markets.
"Japan’s nuclear ambitions, therefore, must overcome the strong anti-nuclear lobby and the tarnished reputation of nuclear power post-Fukushima. Despite strong pushes to reopen the nuclear power stations, the approval process has been very slow."
My interpretation of that passage is that LNG suppliers that like selling their wares in Japan should do what they can to strengthen the already strong anti-nuclear lobby and to slow restart approvals.
Here is the blurb Digital Refining uses to describe itself.
"Digitalrefining is an easy-to-use website for the refining, gas and petrochemical processing industries. It holds the largest free-of-charge information bank available anywhere of technical articles, industry news, events and product information; all available through a quick and easy registration process providing immediate access."
Going back to the more recent headline at the top of this post. It seems that the delaying tactics are faltering.
Existing nuclear plant restarts are gaining some momentum. LNG sales are declining.
Japan signed up for the 24 nation declaration to triple nuclear energy capacity by 2050. (if it uses its current production as the baseline, it can achieve most of that goal simply by staring existing plants.)
But the antinuclear lobbies and their presumed allies in the LNG import business are not going to allow their market share to dwindle without a fight.
They are still spreading fear, uncertainty and doubt. For example, a whole series of [planted or encouraged?] articles since the Jan 1, 2024 earthquake have reminded the Japanese people that they need to be afraid, very afraid of nuclear power plant performance whenever the ground moves a bit.
But the fires and explosions that regularly occur in natural gas and electrical transmission systems during earthquakes are nothing to worry about. In fact, they are so un-newsworthy that it's hard (but not impossible) to find any mention that they occur.