So many Trump haters dooming about the MOU with Iran about to be signed. While not knowing the specifics, they are sure it is all bad, a complete surrender. But here is what we do know:
Iran’s nuclear program is over. It’s all been blown to smithereens. Yes, they could reconstitute it, but that will take years, tens of billions of dollars and the US/Israel/rest of the world all sitting around and allowing them to. Not going to happen. Whether the last of the uranium is swept up and disposed of tomorrow or next year doesn’t matter.
Iran’s military is destroyed. The threat of thousands of missiles and drones raining down on the region is gone. Yes, they have scores of missiles and drones left, but those can be easily defended against and eventually eliminated. Of course, it only takes a few to shut down traffic in the Strait (like the Houthis on the Red Sea), but we have shown them that all that accomplishes is the shutdown of their own economic lifeline.
The leadership of the IRG and mullahs has been devastated, but the regime still hangs on. No, the US has not installed a new regime, but that is not our responsibility. (And aren’t the America-haters still faulting us for “installing” the Shah?). It really doesn’t matter to us who signs the MOU (or not), Iran is now “in system”. Like Venezuela, we are the ones deciding if they sell oil, if they can be paid, if they can have access to their own money.
The signing of the MOU is just an excuse to open the Strait. Nobody expects Iran to live up to the conditions. If they attempt to restart the nuclear program, we will prevent them. I they attempt to shut down traffic in the Strait they will have to deal with not only the US military but the other factions in their government jonesing for that oil money. If they shoot at their neighbors, it will mostly be blocked, but the return fire will not be.
We don’t need (or want) to invade Iran, or nuke them, or reduce their population to starvation by destroying all their oil/electrical/transportation infrastructure to get them to comply. Trump’s diplomacy is not instantaneous, but it is inevitable. We hold all the cards.