Followers - Here is another AI data inputted forecast discussion, tailored for you. Enjoy!
1) Western U.S. Heatwave – Breaking?
A major heatwave is currently affecting the western U.S., with record or near-record highs, especially in the Southwest and Southern California, and persistent warm overnight lows diminishing any nighttime relief. I have posted a current 850MB temp map from Euro AI.
This heat peaks thru today (Sunday) and begins to weaken thereafter, with gradual cooling into next week.
California and the Desert Southwest are at high wildfire risk during the peak heat period, due to fuel dryness and heat.
Timing: Expect relief starting late weekend into early next week, as the ridge that’s supporting the heat breaks or weakens, allowing cooler airmasses and/or monsoonal flow to push in.
In summary: The western heatwave is ongoing through the weekend, and we should start seeing cooler conditions early next week, though regional variability will exist.
2) Southwest and Monsoonal Flow
A monsoonal moisture surge is underway or imminent, pushing northward into the Southwest U.S., including Arizona, New Mexico, the Great Basin, and possibly portions of California and the Rockies.
This more consistent monsoon pattern appears more active than earlier in the season, with daily afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances, heavy localized rainfall, and flash flooding risks, especially in slot canyons, dry washes, and burn scars.
The monsoon surge is expected to linger through Labor Day, then gradually diminish but continue with scattered afternoon convection into early September.
Impacts include cooling in the Southwest and Central Rockies as moisture and cloud cover increase, mitigating some heat.
Bottom line: The Southwest is transitioning from heat-dominated conditions into a moist, thunderstorm-prone pattern with flash flood potential, particularly late afternoons/evenings through the coming week.
3) 8–14 Day Outlook (approx. Sept 1–7, 2025)
Based on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center 8–14 day outlook and hazards discussion: (
cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)
Temperature:
Above-normal warmth is expected to continue across parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Intermountain West, though the extreme heat hazard is less likely to be present. Forecast highs may fall into more moderate ranges, not necessarily triple-digits.
In the Desert Southwest and California, extreme heat risk diminishes, and temperatures moderate compared to the peak heatweek.
Precipitation and Hazards:
Slight risk of heavy precipitation is possible in the Desert Southwest during the late portion of the 8–14 day window (around September 5–7), related to moisture surges and potential tropical cyclone influences.
Implications:
The heatwave out west subsides, but pockets of above-average warmth persist in the Pacific Northwest/Intermountain region.
Southwest transitions into a moist, westerly pattern, with increased rainfall potential and some heavy precipitation/flash flood risk around early September.
Fire weather risk may ease in many heated areas, though lightning and residual dryness might still drive localized hazards, particularly before the monsoon moisture fully establishes.
Summary and Outlook
Region Short-Term (Next Week) 8–14 Day Outlook (Early Sept) West (PNW, CA) Peak heat over weekend, then cooling begins Above-normal warmth may linger but extreme heat risk declines Southwest Monsoonal moisture builds, afternoon storms, flash flood potential Heavy rainfall risk around Sep 5–7; more cloud cover, reduced heat Intermountain/Great Basin/Rockies Mixed—some thunderstorms, moisture pulsing Temperatures near or slightly above normal, storm chances persist Desert Southwest Heat moderates, replaced by moisture and storms Elevated heavy precipitation risk in early September
Forecast Highlights
The western heatwave is breaking gradually, with the most intense heat through the weekend, followed by cooling into early next week.
In the Southwest, monsoonal flow is on the rise, bringing widespread potential for thunderstorms, localized heavy rain, and flooding concerns, particularly in terrain-sensitive regions.
During the 8–14 day period (approx. Sept 1–7), heat risk diminishes, storm/flood potential increases, and above-average warmth may persist in northwestern interior zones.
Desert Southwest may see significant precipitation in early September due to moisture surges, including possible hurricane remnants or tropical system influences.
Below, I have added the Euro AI model for temp ranges throughout North America.....Canada is very warm, while the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS is below average in temps. West Coast moderates a bit. I have put the precipitation rainfall map thru the extended. Not much west of AZ, but the southwest east of CA gets so much needed precipitation.
Temps in the long range seem to warm up from east of the divide thru the east coast, so September seem to be warm all over the US. More on that later this week.........