Tim Garbutt retweeted
๐#IFSSatStat: The UK, alongside other NATO countries, has committed to increasing defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035.
Reaching this would cost an additional ยฃ30-40 billion each year: a major fiscal challenge for the UK.
๐ Read our report here: ifs.org.uk/publications/uk-dโฆ
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๐ #IFSSatStat: The share of 16- to 24-year-olds not in employment, education or training is similar now to levels seen in the early 2000s, but follows a decade of improvement that has now gone into reverse.
๐ Read our recent report on NEETs here: ifs.org.uk/publications/why-โฆ
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๐ #IFSSatStat: Youth employment rates fell across nearly every UK region between 2022 and 2025: London and Yorkshire and the Humber saw youth employment drop 4 percentage points over this period.
๐ Read our recent report on the NEET rate here: ifs.org.uk/publications/why-โฆ
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๐ #IFSSatStat: The new tax on salary sacrifice pension contributions will affect the private sector much more than the public sector, with the finance & insurance and information & technology industries particularly affected.
ALT Chart shows mean extra yearly National Insurance contributions per employee assuming no behavioural change, by sector and private sector industry. Title states: "Changes to the way salary sacrifice pension contributions are taxed will impact the private sector much more than the public sector."
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๐ #IFSSatStat: The UK has shed around 175,000 regular armed forces personnel since 1985, with the Army, Navy and Air Force all shrinking over this period.
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๐ Read our report on UK defence spending from last year here: ifs.org.uk/publications/uk-dโฆ
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๐ #IFSSatStat: Scotland has one of the lowest child poverty rates of any of the regions and nations of the UK.
Its target of lowering the relative child poverty rate to 10% however is forecast currently to be missed by a significant margin.
ALT Chart shows relative child poverty rate in Scotland. Title states: "The Scottish Government has a very ambitious 10% target for relative child poverty in 2030, but the latest forecast suggests it will be 18%."
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๐ #IFSSatStat: The Help to Buy policies made almost no difference to the share of local properties people on low incomes could afford.
Read our comment on the effects of Help to Buy on housing affordability here: ifs.org.uk/articles/who-beneโฆ
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๐ #IFSSatStat: Official figures overstated the wealth gap between young and old, with under-40s holding 18% of total wealth in 2020โ22, not the 11% suggested by official statistics.ย
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Read our new report on wealth distribution here: ifs.org.uk/publications/how-โฆ
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๐ #IFSSatStat: The poverty rate in Wales (22%) is higher than the UK average (20%), and higher than all UK regions other than London (27%). This is driven by high working-age poverty (21%) and child poverty (32%), though Wales does have a low rate of pensioner poverty (11%).
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๐ #IFSSatStat: Last year's Budget changes to the tax on sugar in soft drinks are forecast to reduce average daily calorie intakes by just 0.3kcal, compared to the almost 20kcal drop from the levyโs original rollout.
This is unlikely to make much difference to obesity levels.
ALT Chart shows reduction in daily calories per person from the implementation of the Soft Drinks Industry Levy and Budget 2025 extensions. Title states: "While the original soft drinks levy reduced average daily sugar intakes by almost 20kcal, the Budget 2025 reforms will have almost no effect."
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๐ #IFSSatStat: New monthly awards for personal independence payment (PIP) have been falling since their peak of almost 47,000 in 2024, but at around 27,000 per month they remain well above the pre-pandemic average.
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๐ #IFSSatStat: The current energy price shock isย smaller than the lastย crisis (so far), but the starting scenario is different: household energy bills are 14% higher in real terms than before the Russia-Ukraine war and the public finances are more precarious.
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๐ #IFSSatStat: Despite higher per-pupil spending, Scotlandโs performance on educational PISA tests has fallen relative to England over the last decade.
This has likely been driven by other parts of the system such as changes to the curriculum, assessment and accountability.
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๐ #IFSSatStat: The most recent data show net migration was significantly below the OBRโs forecast for 2025.
Previous OBR estimates suggest a permanent 100,000-a-year drop in net migration could increase its borrowing forecast by around ยฃ10 billion per year in the medium term.
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๐#IFSSatStat: Scotland's per person funding advantage over England has fallen from close to 32% in 2019โ20 to 26% today, and is set to shrink further by 2028โ29 as the so-called 'Barnett squeeze' bites.
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