$LPTH With the Virtual Investor Day presentation happening tomorrow, I wanted to post an updated version of a lightpath summary write-up I shared here a couple of months ago covering key global and company events that have transpired, or are still ongoing. As this felt like a good time to put everything in one place, as I hope this provides a tidy summary of many key global and company events for those who are newer to the lightpath story ahead of Investor Day tomorrow, as well as maybe a helpful refresher for existing longs looking for yet another write-up to reaffirm their conviction. So to start of....
➡️Germanium prices continue to rise as China maintains its existing export controls. As a reminder, although Beijing agreed this past October to pause additional rare-earth restrictions after the Trump–Xi South Korea meeting, the prior controls which included those on germanium remain in force. Lightpaths blackdiamond glass which is an alternative to germanium, AND which provides multiple improvements over germanium, is experiencing accelerating demand as a direct result.
➡️The newly passed National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) explicitly directs the DoD to develop alternatives for optical glass coming from certain nations and prohibiting the procurement of rare earths like germanium from non-allied foreign nations. This will further create a massive, durable, government backed tailwind for BlackDiamond adoption.
➡️Government spending on counter-UAS systems is surging across both the U.S. and Europe. LightPath supplies EO/IR subsystems to multiple c-UAS providers in this space, some of which, such as Trust Automation, have already secured multi-year, ~$490M IDIQ awards to provide c-UAS solutions across all military branches. Demand for LightPath’s c-UAS cameras is already significant today and it is poised to escalate further into 2026 as more government grants and contracts roll out. As of today, we are currently aware that companies like Dzyne technologies, pelco (subsidiary of Motorola), Perceptview and Trust automation all use lightpath c-UAS cameras and there are probably many more.
➡️LightPath’s recent acquisition of Amorphous Materials Inc. (AMI) significantly strengthened its BlackDiamond platform by adding the capability to melt large-diameter optics essential for replacing traditional germanium-based optical infrared systems across high-value applications, including missile programs, long-range imaging, and space systems. During the company’s most recent earnings call, management highlighted that the Space Development Agency (SDA) awarded $3.5 billion in December to build 72 infrared tracking layer satellites, with approximately $16 million allocated per satellite for the infrared payload. With the integration of AMI’s capabilities, LightPath is set to play a meaningful role in this tracking layer satellite buildout. In addition, the SDA has announced plans for a much larger low Earth orbit constellation of 300 to 500 satellites, creating a substantial long-term opportunity for LightPath to support the continued expansion of next-generation infrared tracking infrastructure.
➡️Lightpaths multiple older/existing military programs are all advancing simultaneously. In just the last few earnings calls we learned:
• SPEIR for L3Harris, which will outfit ALL navy surface ships with 360-degree EO/IR capability, is moving into low-rate production.
• Lightpath subsystem deliveries for the Eye of the Apache program are underway.
• LightPath now supplies IR cameras for two-thirds of all Border Patrol towers, supporting major defense companies like Elbit Systems.
• Lightpath is involved in multiple Golden Dome initiatives for air and space missile defense.
• Additional primes, like Leonardo DRS, are turning to LightPath amid germanium supply constraints and explicitly mention lightpath by name during prior ERs as a solution.
• The lockheed martin Next Generation Short-Range Interceptor (NGSRI) decision is imminent, the decision could possible come any week, and LightPath has already had to expand its Texas VisiMed facility in anticipation. If Lockheed were to win this contract, lightpath would be entitled to $50M - $100M annual revenue once the program is in full rate production.
• Lightpath's backlog increased from $21m in Q1 2025 to approximately 100m now and the backlog continues to grow at a rapid pace
➡️Earlier in 2025 LightPath announced receiving private placement from drone manufactures Ondas (ONDS) and Unusual Machines (UMAC), bringing in two strategic partners that operate directly in the autonomous drone and NDAA-compliant component ecosystems. Not long after that private placement, in December 2025 the FCC moved to ban the authorization of new foreign-made drones and certain critical components, including drone cameras, a development that will further accelerate a shift toward U.S.-based suppliers light lightpath. With drone demand continuing to ramp across defense, government, and commercial markets, this positioning has the potential to meaningfully expand LightPath’s role within the domestic drone supply chain and further validate its germanium free infrared camera platform as adoption scales. Additionally, on their last earnings call, lightpath management noted they are evaluating opportunities within the FPV drone segment, which could represent another emerging avenue for growth if pursued.
➡️And all of the above military focused bullet points are not even mentioning their commercial/consumer verticals where, while less in the limelight, they are undoubtedly also seeing accelerating demand for their smart city and optical gas imaging cameras.... Remember, U.S. utilities are undergoing a major build-out of power plants and substations to support the AI-driven capex boom. Many of these facilities, being fossil-fuel based, are required to monitor SF₆ emissions; precisely the niche addressed by LightPath’s optical gas-imaging cameras. Furthermore, AI is driving expansion of smart-city infrastructure which is then propelling demand for advanced optical solutions like the ones lightpath provides.... As more power plants, substations, and smart-city systems come online, demand should logically increase for lightpaths optical gas imaging and smart city vertical products.
Overall, what we’re seeing with a company like lightpath feels bigger than a single well-timed inflection point tied to BlackDiamond emerging as an alternative to germanium. Demand for domestic EO/IR solutions has accelerated meaningfully amid defense modernization, rapid drone proliferation, and broader geopolitical tensions, creating a clear and sustained demand signal for LightPath’s core technologies. More importantly, management is clearly focused on compounding their advantage, iterating on next-generation blackdiamond materials, expanding into high growth verticals like unmanned aircraft and space-based systems, strengthening relationships with large primes, pursuing strategic M&A, and steadily moving further up the value chain both in the military/defense and commercial/consumer industries. It’s this combination of durable external tailwinds and deliberate strategic execution that makes lightpaths current positioning feel real/inevitable/compelling.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I have deep conviction in this company’s products, its leadership team, and the structural tailwinds supporting the business. And I remain degen long.