$SPCX. The question is not whether it is a great company. It is when you get paid.
SpaceX has built what is arguably the strongest competitive position in aerospace, with a near-monopoly in reusable heavy launch and a dominant LEO constellation in Starlink. The open question is when a public shareholder actually gets paid, and the filing answers it more honestly than the price.
At around $2.1T,
$SPCX trades near 112x revenue. The only profitable segment is Starlink, roughly $4.4B in operating income. Launch appears to generate lower economic returns than Starlink and is increasingly used to support internal demand. The AI segment is consuming capital at a pace that likely exceeds $30B annually. You pay a monopoly multiple for one profitable network alongside a lower-return launch business and a capital-intensive AI segment.
History sets the base rate. Seven of the ten largest US IPOs of the past decade were underwater a year later. Didi fell 84%, Rivian 64%. Facebook spent over a year below its offer price before it became a great investment.
The timing sits in the lockup. There is no single 180 day wall. After the Q2 report in late July, 20% of insider shares unlock, then 7% tranches roll for months, then 28% more after Q3. Up to 2.4B shares, roughly 4.3x the float, become sellable within 90 days. That supply lands while index funds are forced to buy
$SPCX into the Nasdaq 100. Musk himself is locked until June 2027.
My framework suggests a buy zone around $35 to $55. There you pay 30 to 50x Starlink forward EBITDA and the AI segment is free, which is where I value it until compute leasing becomes a revenue line instead of a cost line.
No position. This is a wait. What gets me long is a price in that zone combined with one fundamental confirmation: either stabilising Starlink ARPU or compute leasing proving it can become a meaningful revenue stream.