SKELETON on POLYMARKET
to win on any political event you just need to insert the tools and information sources into the correct skeleton and make decisions
if you think that by taking one source you can outperform the crowd, you are mistaken
but with a sufficient number of tools and your reaction to the event, it is possible
studying the political market i understood that it is impossible to analyze everything with one set of tools
several main clusters divide this market, i identified 5 main ones
but each of them can be divided into many more clusters
--> elections
> president, parliament, governors, mayors, referendums
--> macro, central banks
> fed/ecb decisions, rates, inflation, unemployment
--> geopolitics, conflicts
>wars, ceasefires, sanctions, coups
--> legislation, regulation
> will they pass law x ,will there be bans/regulation y
--> metaevents
> shutdown, impeachment, major scandals, nothing ever happens markets
each has its own sources of information, therefore one tool for all politics is a myth
--- skeleton
> resolution and rules
what exactly the “yes/no” depends on, which source, which date.
> base rate
what usually happens in such situations
> current data
polls, macro statistics, conflict data, official documents
> market price
polymarket, what the crowd believes in percentages
> scenarios
2–4 development scenarios with approximate probabilities
> catalysts
which events can sharply move the price, debates, meetings, summits, deadlines
> position hedge
where the market is clearly wrong and how to play it with minimal risk
using this cluster system and the analysis skeleton, inserting the correct tools, you can outperform the majority
based on a cold head and solid judgment.
hehe DYOR