Rough notes on Warsh Fed meeting. Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Federal Reserve chair delivered something his predecessors increasingly struggled to provide: a coherent message. The shift to a shorter, fact-based statement is not cosmetic. It is an implicit admission that the Fed’s prior reliance on forward guidance, projections and signalling had become a source of confusion rather than clarity. Warsh’s critique lands on a key vulnerability. In a world of lagged and heavily revised data, the promise of precision policy guidance is illusory. By stepping back from the dot plot and interpretive framing, he is attempting to re-anchor policy in observable outcomes rather than forecasts. Old fashion survey data not good enough. Does not like data subject to 2 and 3 revisions. Wants the Real Economy to drive the markets not the Fed. The establishment of independent task forces across five areas signals that this is not a one-off adjustment but the beginning of a broader institutional reset, including a rethink of the Summary of Economic Projections. Yet continuity remains where it matters: the 2 per cent inflation target is unchanged. The intellectual shift is equally notable. Warsh’s rejection of the Phillips curve trade-off, and his explicit embrace of productivity growth, suggests a Fed less inclined toward pre-emptive tightening. If the message is consistent, the challenge will be execution. Policy still appears restrictive for housing but permissive for financial markets, a tension that will test this new framework. @cvpayne @FoxBusiness foxbusiness.com/video/639868…