Several candidates to succeed Christine Lagarde as head of the ECB. Including Pierre Wunsch?
The story | The governor of the National Bank has a profile that could appeal to the Germans. But it remains to be seen whether he will be a candidate. Other names are already circulating.
The interview given two weeks ago to the Financial Times by Pierre Wunsch, the governor of the National Bank of Belgium, has been interpreted as a sign. A sign that the Belgian is seeking visibility on the international stage. This suggests that he could be a candidate to succeed Christine Lagarde as president of the ECB. But does the governor have a chance? Time will tell…
It is clear that the choice of the future president of the ECB will be part of a major bargaining process for vacant positions. Several names of potential successors are already circulating. All this while taking into account an implicit rule that Germany, France, Italy, and now Spain should normally have a seat on the ECB's Executive Board.
Among the names mentioned is that of the Spanish economist Pablo Hernandez de Cos (55 years old), who is considered "very credible," according to Eric Dor. A former governor of the Bank of Spain, he currently heads the BIS (the central bank for central banks). "Circumstances may also be working in this candidate's favor. Spain was deeply affected by the financial crisis. The country has recovered superbly, with sound public finances and one of the best growth rates in the eurozone. From the perspective of the European Union's official doctrine, Spain is thus a model that has successfully implemented the prescribed policies. It would therefore make sense to put Spain forward for the presidency of the ECB," believes Eric Dor.
Another possible candidate is Klaas Knot, the former president of the Dutch central bank. But for him to have a chance, the Dutchman Frank Elderson would have to resign from his position on the ECB's executive board. This would not be a problem.
The name of Joachim Nagel, the current president of the Bundesbank, has also been mentioned. "With a German (Ursula von der Leyen, Ed.) at the head of the Commission, it would be difficult for Joachim Nagel to succeed Christine Lagarde. The same goes for Isabel Schnabel, also a member of the Executive Board, whose profile is also too divisive. Klaas Knot would then be a candidate supported by Germany because he has a fairly similar profile," says Eric Dor.
And what about Pierre Wunsch? His second term as governor will end in 2029. In accordance with an agreement within Bart De Wever's government, he will be replaced by a candidate proposed by the N-VA. But we cannot rule out the possibility that he might leave earlier than planned if he is offered an even more prestigious position.
But does he have the right profile to lead the ECB? The governor "certainly possesses all the professional qualities required to be president of the ECB. Known as a 'hawk' (a term used for those who favor a stricter monetary policy), his profile could reassure Germany and other countries that want the ECB to maintain price stability as its top priority, such as the Netherlands, Austria, Finland, and the Baltic states," replies Eric Dor.
Result of a Compromise
Some observers nevertheless point out that Pierre Wunsch's public statements are not necessarily working in his favor. By questioning certain decisions (such as the potentially delayed timing of the interest rate hike), he may appear divisive. "Yet, the president of the ECB must unite," is the common refrain.
Furthermore, this appointment will be the result of compromises between the major eurozone countries, also taking into account other important European Union positions already held by certain countries in the past. And in this respect, Belgium is no exception, having held several key positions (Peter Praet at the ECB and Charles Michel at the European Council, in particular).
It remains to be seen what Pierre Wunsch will do after 2029. The bets are on.