I keep getting asked why I'm so convicted on $TAO So today, I want to share the numbers behind my thesis, and why I believe $1,000 and even $3,000 are realistic targets. First, about the fundamentals, I've already shared those in my previous post. You can read it here 👆 Today, I want to focus on subnets on $TAO, their growth speed, and revenue. Right now, @opentensor has 129 active subnets, up from just 32 before dTAO launched in early 2025. That's 4x in months, and still accelerating. But look at the subnet revenue. The top 3 compute subnets have already hit a combined $20M ARR, and they only switched on monetization about 3 months before reaching that number: – @TargonCompute (SN4): ~$10.4M ARR, confidential compute for enterprises. – @chutes_ai (SN64): ~$4.3M ARR, serving 120B tokens/day, 85% cheaper than AWS. – @lium_io (SN51): cheapest H100 GPU rental rates on the market. → Real customers, real revenue, and they're scaling fast. This shifted my conviction from "interesting narrative" to "I need to accumulate more." Now let's talk about targets, with real numbers. $TAO today: ~$268. FDV: ~$5.6B. Max supply: 21M. [1] Why I think $1,000 is realistic (= $21B FDV, ~3.7x) – Subnet ARR just needs to scale to $200-500M. It went from $0 to $20M in 3 months. That pace is not unrealistic. – $21B = less than 1.5% of the ~$1.4T AI market projected by 2028. – Halving already cut emissions by 50%. 68% of supply is staked and still rising – @Grayscale @Bitwise have filed for spot TAO ETFs. If approved, that's an entirely new wave of capital. I see this as a 12-18 month target. The catalysts are already in motion. [2] Why $3,000 is possible, but requires patience (= $63B FDV, ~11x) – Bittensor needs to capture 3-4% of the $1.77T AI market by 2032. – Subnet ARR needs to cross $1B , with 500 active subnets. – Centralized AI companies trade at 30-50x revenue. Even a conservative 20x on $1B ARR = $20B . Add scarcity from the next halving (~2029), and $63B is within reach. → This is my 2028-2030 conviction play. The path is there. It just needs time. I've been accumulating $TAO, and of course this is my personal view. But the subnet revenue flywheel is working, and most people still aren't paying attention. I believe that's the opportunity. Ofc, NFA.