I don't know where my response came across as silver being equivalent to oil, but my apologies for the confusion.
Here is the chart that shows what I am saying.
Never, ever, has the ratio reversion ended at anything above .4:1, in fact its probably more like .37:1 but I digress.
Most of the reversions end around .2:1.
Close to 1/3 of them end at .1:1.
Only a couple end at .4:1.
We can extrapolate future oil prices by using silver prices...
We can also extrapolate the time to reversion as every example here happens within 2-3 years.
@$50 silver (a very reasonable example as silver needs to retest its cup and handle breakout) we can use the ratio to estimate $125-$250 oil, with a 1/3 chance of $500 oil.
@$100 silver the numbers are $250-$500 with a chance for $1000.
As you can see...$200 silver is VERY unlikely in the short term. (this current cycle).
In almost every instance here silver loses 50% while oil gains 2-5x.
The reason this is so reliable is that it relates to a business cycle.
Remove emotions. Use factual history. Thats all I'm saying.
I'm a stacker. I hold more silver than 99% of stackers...
But I am also realistic about it's price.