The global security environment is becoming more complex. The risk of global economic fragmentation is rising, and emerging technologies such as AI and quantum computing are expected to have a significant impact on national security. Furthermore, armed conflict is becoming more common globally, major power competition continues, and military capabilities among state and nonstate actors are improving. Intensifying competition over supply chains and technological primacy, more diverse threats in key domains, and unresolved or potential regional conflicts create interconnected risks. However, we should be cautious about thinking that every problem in the world directly threatens us or is of equal importance to the U.S. The IC assesses that the Homeland faces a variety of threats in the coming year, including our top concerns: transnational organized crime, illicit drug trafficking, migration, the threat of Islamist ideology and terrorism, major power competition, and WMD threats. Transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) are smuggling illegal drugs into the U.S., engaging in financial fraud, and laundering money through international financial institutions. Changes in U.S. policies during 2025 on illegal migration, and increased enforcement efforts at the U.S.– Mexico border and regionally, have deterred illegal immigration and drastically reduced migrant encounters, but the underlying factors that for years have driven migration to the U.S. from various parts of the world remain largely unchanged. Meanwhile, Russia, and China to a lesser extent, are expanding their interest and presence in the Arctic to counter perceived U.S. inroads and advance their strategic interests. China, Russia, and North Korea are also developing new, novel, or advanced delivery systems to increase or obtain a capability to strike the Homeland.