JPM on LTM
Downgrade to N, TP cut to Rs 4500 from Rs 5100
LTM announced that it has issued an offer to acquire Randstadās technology and consulting services business in Europe and Australia.
Revenues of these entities (ā¬469m) have declined sharply in the past two years while estimate business operates at much lower 4-5% Ebitda margins, given its onshore-heavy nature, which should be materially margin-dilutive.
LTM has also announced concomitant contracts to take over and build a GCC for Randstad in India and a reverse contract to Randstad to support LTMās subcon needs
While, across three contracts, management doesnāt see any EPS dilution, estimate acquisition alone could drive 2% EPS dilution due to amortization costs and lower interest income.
Moreover, donāt see obvious horizontal service line or vertical synergies, given its focus on digital engineering and cybersecurity rather than core IT Services, which LTM focuses on.
Cross-sell opportunities as they exist should be limited by different buying centers for engineering and IT services
Acquisition price appears to be modest at ā¬160m on a EV/Sales basis (0.34x), but not on implied profit multiples (8x EBITDA, 13-15x EBIT), given global/EU peer multiples.
More than price paid, see this acquisition as a sign that organic growth opportunities are drying up and management is being forced to evaluate unusual acquisitions to bulk up rather than thoughtfully add capabilities. Fear management distraction, due to closure of the acquisition by 3Q27 and ekeing out of synergies after that, could weigh on execution.
Moderate organic revenues/EPS by 1-2%, cut target PE multiple from 21x to 19x
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