Bitcoin is currently rising due to the end-of-war news.
However, rather than it being due to the end of the war, Bitcoin had simply dropped significantly in a short period.
Since even the 12-hour and daily timeframes were oversold, a short-term rebound could be seen as natural, even without the end-of-war news.
My trading style is very clear.
I identify the trend, determine the direction, and maintain that perspective until the criteria that defined that direction are breached.
If those criteria are breached, I shift to a neutral stance, establish new criteria, and trade accordingly.
This is how I look for evidence and make an effort to trade based on clear-cut criteria.
The current situation is exactly that.
First, because I judged the upper boundary of the white descending channel to be a trap, I will naturally maintain my bearish view unless it breaks out of the channel.
Even before it entered the channel, I previously shared the possibility that a retest of the upper boundary would take place to cool down the indicators after entry.
I also mentioned that if it drags sideways and hits the upper boundary of the channel, the price at the bottom of the channel would drop even lower.
People are talking about a "double bottom," a "real trend reversal," or an "altcoin bull market," but the current position isn't even at 80K–90K...
It dropped from 82K to 59K and is now at 65K; it’s only natural to expect a rebound of this scale.
Of course, it could go up further due to the end-of-war news.
However, my primary criterion remains unchanged: the white channel.
Even if the trap in that channel fails, my medium- to long-term bearish view won't instantly turn bullish. My stance would simply shift to neutral.
Ultimately, until it breaks out above the yellow channel, my bearish view remains unchanged.
My thoughts are clear.
I have said before that the drop was not caused because of the war.
And I sincerely hope the war ends quickly. But will it pump immediately just because the war is over? I don't believe the market moves that simplistically.
That's why I hope for a swift end to the war so that the market can move according to the charts.
I shared during the live stream that I expect a sharp drop between late June and early July.
I just hope the war ends quickly this week, and things play out from next week onward exactly as I anticipated.