🟠 HISTORIC: HANSON BEATS ALBANESE AS PREFERRED PM 🟠
For the first time in Australian polling history, Pauline Hanson has overtaken a sitting Prime Minister as preferred PM.
THE RESOLVE NUMBERS
Conducted 8 to 13 June, sample of 1,801:
- Pauline Hanson 33%
- Anthony Albanese 29%
- Angus Taylor 16%
THE FULL SWEEP
Every preferred PM poll in the last month had Albanese ahead. Tonight Resolve broke the pattern.
- DemosAU (15-20 May): Albanese 34, Hanson 27, Taylor 23
- RedBridge (late May): Albanese 31, Hanson 25, Taylor 14
- YouGov (26 May - 2 Jun): Albanese 47, Hanson 41
- Newspoll (1-4 Jun): Albanese 44, Hanson 38
- Resolve (8-13 Jun): Hanson 33, Albanese 29, Taylor 16
Five polls. One direction. Hanson has closed the gap and overtaken him in three weeks.
A WORD ON METHODOLOGY
Newspoll and YouGov force a head to head, which props up the incumbent because he's the default for undecided voters. Resolve gives you a list and lets you pick anyone, which depresses the incumbent and lifts challengers with strong recognition.
That helps Hanson at the margins. It does not close a four point gap on its own. Hanson is genuinely ahead.
THE HISTORIC FRAME
Pauline Hanson first entered the House of Representatives in 1996, disendorsed by the Liberals before she got there. Thirty years later she leads a sitting Prime Minister on preferred PM in a national poll. No One Nation leader has ever held that position. The 2017 Galaxy Queensland poll had her surging past the LNP leader on preferred premier, but that was against an opposition leader, not a head of government.
This is a first.
NEW: THE POLL TRACKER IS LIVE
Every Australian poll as it drops. Newspoll, Roy Morgan, YouGov, Resolve, DemosAU, federal, state and by elections, all in one live thread:
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