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@Justin_Gaethje the stats have you at no takedowns against Topuria.
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Khabib on Gaethje’s POWER πŸ₯ŠπŸ”₯ β€œJUSTIN HITS LIKE A TRUCK πŸ’₯ NOBODY HIT ME HARDER THAN JUSTIN GAETHJE 😀 KICKS β€’ PUNCHES β€’ LEFT HOOK β€’ RIGHT UPPERCUT πŸ’£β€ #khabib #justingaethje #ufc #mma #fight #champion #hardhitter #fightnight #ufcstats
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βœ… Fresh Data Dump: Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje (UFC Freedom 250) Result: Justin Gaethje def. Ilia Topuria via TKO (Corner Stoppage) – Round 4, 5:00 Gaethje becomes the new undisputed UFC Lightweight Champion. Fight Stats (UFCStats) Metric Ilia Topuria Justin Gaethje Significant Strikes 97 of 162 (59%)91 of 192 (47%)Total Strikes 111 of 177119 of 228Knockdowns10Takedowns1 of 3 (33%)0 of 5 (0%)Control Time 2:321:32 Submission Attempts 00 Significant Strikes by Target Head: Topuria 55/112 | Gaethje 79/175 Body: Topuria 37/45 | Gaethje 8/12 Legs: Topuria 5/5 | Gaethje 4/5 Round-by-Round Breakdown Round 1 β€” 10-9 Gaethje Gaethje 32/68 sig strikes (47%) vs Topuria 29/58 (50%) Round 2 β€” 10-8 Topuria (Big round for Topuria) Topuria 44/60 sig strikes (73%) 1 knockdown 2:02 control time Gaethje only 12/35 (34%) Round 3 β€” 10-9 Gaethje Gaethje lands 22/36 sig strikes (61%) and takes control Round 4 β€” 10-9 Gaethje Gaethje 25/53 sig strikes. Doctor checked Topuria between rounds. Corner stopped it after Round 4. Key Takeaways: Topuria dominated Round 2 and had the only knockdown. Gaethje won the other three rounds and landed more significant head strikes overall. Gaethje’s pressure and volume in the later rounds broke Topuria down.
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Replying to @sundayikale
@ufcstats @espn @ufc @fanduel @draftkings @bet365 @justin_gathje how is this not considered a takedown?
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Replying to @sundayikale
@ufcstats how is this not a takedown?
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Dr@g0nL30n retweeted
Data sourced via Litebeam: Exa Neural Search, UFCStats, Sherdog, CBS Sports, WagerTalk, Combat Edge, Instagram & Reddit Research cost: ~$0.15 USDC ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Fighter Records: Topuria β€’ Record: 17-0 (Undefeated) β€’ Age: 29 β€’ Height: 5'7" β€’ Weight: 155 lbs β€’ Avg Fight Time: 9:22 β€’ Status: Dual Champion (FW LW) Gaethje β€’ Record: 27-5 β€’ Age: 38 β€’ Height: 5'11" β€’ Weight: 155 lbs β€’ Avg Fight Time: 12:09 β€’ Status: Interim LW Champion Key observation: The 9-year age gap is significant. Topuria enters in his physical prime, while Gaethje has accumulated years of elite-level damage. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Striking Comparison: Topuria β€’ 7.2 significant strikes landed/min β€’ 3.1 absorbed/min β€’ 57% accuracy β€’ 62% defense Gaethje β€’ 10.63 significant strikes landed/min β€’ 8.0 absorbed/min β€’ 44% accuracy β€’ 52% defense ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Grappling Comparison Topuria β€’ 0.73 takedowns / 15 min β€’ 71% takedown defense β€’ Active submission threat Gaethje β€’ 0.63 takedowns / 15 min β€’ 93% takedown defense β€’ Rarely pursues submissions ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Stylistic Matchup Topuria: β€’ Precision counter-striker β€’ Elite composure β€’ One-punch KO power β€’ Surgical combinations Gaethje: β€’ High-volume pressure fighter β€’ Devastating leg kicks β€’ Constant forward pressure β€’ Fight-changing power Injury & Camp Notes: No significant injuries reported ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Venue Factor White House South Lawn Washington D.C. Potential advantages: β€’ Strong crowd support for Gaethje β€’ Historic American event atmosphere β€’ Emotional momentum early ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Win Probability Topuria: 84% Gaethje: 16% Betting market odds: Topuria: -590 to -625 Gaethje: 420 to 460 Method of Victory Topuria KO/TKO - 63% Topuria Submission - 6% Topuria Decision - 15% Gaethje KO/TKO - 9% Gaethje Decision - 6% Gaethje Submission - 1% Av fighting time: 9:22, 2 Rounds. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Why The Model Favors Topuria - Age advantage (29 vs 38) - Superior striking efficiency - Lower damage absorbed - 94% finish rate - Elite composure under pressure Statistical edge in 7 of 8 key categories ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
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Replying to @bulliedb170
why does it say he has 64% on ufcstats
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The UFC Apex era is insane when you see it visually. The first recorded UFC Apex fights in my dataset were on June 18, 2019. Since then, the Apex has climbed to 1,623 recorded fights β€” more than every other venue in this top 10 combined. T-Mobile Arena is 2nd with 419. The Apex isn’t just No. 1… it’s in its own category. #UFC #MMA #FightStats #UFCStats
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Replying to @WonderbreadMMA
Crazy how Khamzat had like 10 minutes of control time and didn't land a single significant ground strike (on UFCstats)
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🚨 #UFCPerth Fight Breakdown 🚨 Kody Steele (7-1-0) vs. Dom β€œStreet Buddha” Mar Fan (9-2-0) Lightweight β€’ 155 lbs β€’ 3 x 5 rounds Prelims β€’ RAC Arena, Perth | May 2 πŸ”Έ Steele is fun to watch β€” volume striker with solid grappling. But he’s fun because he basically blocks with his face. 7.17 SApM 😳 (UFCStats) πŸ”Ή Dom is LONG β€” 4-inch reach advantage (75” vs 71”) cleaner striking. If he keeps it standing on home soil, I like the upset win to open the card. Official pick? See the next post in the thread ⬇️ Who you got in the card opener and why? Drop your take below πŸ‘‡ gang. #UFC #MMA
Apr 28
Facing off in Perth πŸͺƒ Jack Della Maddalena vs @thenightmare170 #UFCPerth | #WATheDreamState [ @WestAustralia | MAY 2 | LIVE on @ParamountPlus ]
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Confirmed: Polastri 63 SS hits (78 on ufcstats)
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Replying to @TheUFCStats
And just like that, UFCstats tweet something retard just like always.
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πŸ“Š @MovsarUFC lands about 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes, placing him in the top 3% of the featherweight division in that regard. He is facing Murphy tomorrow at #UFCLondon , which has a below average takedown defense. How does this fight play out? #UFC #MMAanalytics #ufcstats
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Damn, ufcstats didn’t even count the Garbrandt knockdown. Long out struck Cody 59-28… definitely Long’s fight imo. But optics wise, I can still see why a judge would give Cody round 1.
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WOW. Super impressed. My @UFC gambling days are long behind me, but I’ve always wanted to build a Monte Carlo ML UFC fight predictor. Every time I tried I’d stall out on the same pain points β€” scraping UFCStats, cleaning and maintaining the data, engineering features, and then actually training and tuning the model was just way too much overhead for a β€œside project.” All of this was way too much for any AI coding agent to handle months just few months ago. Fast forward to today and @perplexity_ai Computer just one‑shot the entire thing for ~780 credits. It spun up a database of 4,455 fighters from UFCStats with full career stats and fight history, a Monte Carlo engine running 10,000 simulations per matchup with fatigue and finish probabilities, plus a logistic regression model scoring 15 features like striking differential, grappling, win rate, recent form, and physical attributes. Then it blends both into a single combined probability, adds a confidence score, and on top of that gives you: winner win probability, method of victory breakdown, round‑by‑round finish odds, a clean stat comparison view, and even an EV calculator so you can plug in sportsbook lines and instantly see where the EV is. A year ago this was a multi‑week build for a pretty advanced coder. Now it’s basically a prompt and some credits. Feel free to try the app with the link below.
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