50-50. Probably southern Lebanon. I think the Iranians may not have an accurate understanding of Israel and the lobby. They’re thinking of this as a test of US intentions when the truth is that it a test of the autonomy of the US state. They may simply not have the political room to dictate terms to the Israelis. And given what we know about how the Israelis feel about what they call their freedom of action in Lebanon, there may very well have to be a separate peace if the MOU is to signed and upheld at all. Otherwise the Israelis can kill it at their leisure.
BREAKING: Last minute complications have reportedly emerged in the proposed U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, with disagreements said to remain over one of Tehran’s key demands.
Sources indicate the issue could be resolved within the coming hours, but negotiations remain ongoing and no final agreement has been approved or signed.