trump made three fundamental mistakes on Iran.
One: The decision to unilaterally withdraw the US from the JCPOA in 2018, at a time when Iran was fully compliant with the terms of the agreement. If he wanted to tighten the agreement further, he could have built on it, using American leverage.
Two: The decision to launch the Israeli war on Iran in June 2025. Israel thought an initial decapitation strike would cripple the Iranian state and military -- like crippled the Egyptian air force in June 1967. It didn't happen. trump thought American bunker buster bombs would destroy Iran's nuclear programme. They couldn't. Iran cut off IAEA's access to its nuclear programme after the war-- meaning, the Iranian nuclear programme went pitch dark.
Three: The decision to launch an all-out war on Iran on February 28, 2025. trump and netanyahu wanted regime change. They couldn't get it. Iran regionalised the war and took control of Hormuz, enhancing the pain on the global economy. Having failed to achieve a quick solution, trump, in order to not to get stuck in another war in West Asia, shifted his focus from meeting his objectives through force to getting a face-saving exit through talks. That's what he achieved today.
These three mistakes will have far-reaching implications for West Asia's regional order. Will write about it in detail soon.