The problem with football expertise is that it does — not — really exist, but people incorrectly think that it does.
But come on, look at Brighton? Best run club. Pep Guardiola? He would easily win the PL with Luton. Thing is, nothing indicates that Pep is better than most other managers. Better than some, sure, but not better than most.
🔺Take City for example. Check the below graphs. The one to the left sums what each club has spent on a rolling 10 year basis. One line is 50m. When Pep joined in 2016, they had spent £114m more on average per season than any other club over a ten year period (07/08-16/17). The gap to United was £154m more on average per year over 10 years. £210m more on average per year than Arsenal over ten years. The picture to the right is player wages. One line is 50m. Five players on 200k a week. They are about one line ahead of all teams except Chelsea since Pep came in. During Pep’s first 5 years in the PL — there is a much bigger difference between City on one hand and Arsenal, Liverpool and United on the other, than there were between those three and West Ham, Everton and co.
They competed in their own division completely besides Chelsea. When other clubs started to close the in the 2020s, City already had a dynasty. Pep never ’over-performed’ in the PL.
🔺How about Brighton? The thing is — they did fantastically well on all levels for a while. But how much of that was repeatable strategy and how much was all stars aligning at the same time, especially due to the team adopting a possession based style of play that was ahead of the curve in the PL? Facts are that of a group of 60-80 clubs — there will always be some over-performing. That is the nature of football.
Like look at it closely, in 23’, they sold Caicedo, MacAllister and Sanchez for big money. Players they signed for peanuts. In 22’, they sold Cuccurella, Trossard and Bissouma for big money, players they signed for peanuts. In 21’, they sold Ben White for big money. 7 players. The body of mass is perhaps not as big as people think it is.
After 23’, they sold nobody for big money in 24’ and only sold Pedro in 25’, signed for €34m and sold for €63m. Great deal.
Who on the current squad are they selling for big money? Baleba? Minteh? Ayari? I don’t know, the future will tell of any of them are sold for big money.
If Brighton is a super professional organization that performs at a higher level than everyone else — what do you get from it?
In the summer of 24’, they spent €284m. On Rutter, Minteh, Wieffer, Gruda, Kadoglü, Oreilly, Tsiman, Osman, Gomez, Cashin and Yalcouye.
Good? Bad? Average? I don’t know all players — but comes across as fairly average to be honest. But the jury is still out of course.
👉Ultimately, I do think that Brighton is perhaps the best run club in football. But it’s not easy. Media like to drive a notion that clubs are either fantastically run or extremely incompetently run. That might generate clicks.
But it also creates a belief that it is possible to take short cuts if you just are smart. Look back at Brighton in 20 years — will they have had better years than 21-23’? I am not sure they will repeat it.
The way to move up the latter is to invest much more than anyone else. Nobody has ever failed at that (Boehly could be the first). Real and Barca after the land deals with the state. Chelsea under Roman. PSG. City.
If you do not do that — odds are that you have to be darn patient.
Football needs more expertise in the boardroom. The Manchester United keeper Tom Heaton has his A and B badges, a Uefa certificate in football management, and studied executive leadership at Oxford Uni. He's still playing at 40, still a leader in the United dressing room... 1/2