Wednesday June 17 2026 | SPX 7511.35 close 🚨 My tool is predicting SPX 7610 and QQQ 744 as targets. No guarantee these hit. Follow the levels below, not the targets. Tuesday closed at 7511.35, down 42.94 points. Dow hit a fresh record above 52000 for the first time. S&P fell, Nasdaq dropped 1.1 percent as AI names sold off across the board. Money rotated from tech into defensive names rather than leaving the market entirely. Wednesday is the day. Warsh first FOMC decision at 2 PM ET with updated dot plot. Press conference 2:30 PM ET. VIX Expiry at the open. Markets expect rates held steady but expect one quarter-point hike by year end. The dot plot is the risk nobody is hedging. ATM IV for tomorrow's expiry sits at 18 percent. That means options price an expected SPX move of 113 basis points tomorrow, around 85 points either direction. ES = SPX 70 approx (ESU26) THE NUMBERS SPX Close: 7511.35 VIX: 16.41 | VIX9D: 15.77 | VVIX: 87.69 Daily 1SD: /- 75 (7436 to 7586) Weekly 1SD: /- 171 (7340 to 7682) ATR 5-day: /- 56.3 pts | ATR 14-day: /- 56.3 pts Dealer: BUY PRESSURE (dealers buy underlying as price rises near spot, supports upside) Tuesday Range: 7508.68 / 7564.96 Straddle Wed 6/17: /- 28.7 (7481 to 7539) ref 7510 Weekly Thu 6/18: /- 41.70 (7468 to 7552) ref 7510 ATM IV expected range Wed 6/17: /- 85 pts (7426 to 7596 at 18 percent IV) ECONOMIC EVENTS Wednesday 6/17. FOMC Rate Decision 2:00 PM ET. Press conference 2:30 PM ET. Warsh's first meeting as chair. Each member's rate forecast gets updated. Powell stays on the board as a dissenter. VIX Expiry at the open. Retail Sales May 8:30 AM. Business Inventories and Pending Home Sales 10:00 AM. EIA Crude Oil Stocks 10:30 AM. 17-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM. Thursday 6/18. Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET. OPEX close since Friday is holiday. Iran peace deal signing in Geneva. Friday 6/19. Market closed. Juneteenth. THE VOL PICTURE VIX rose 0.21 points Tuesday from 16.20 to 16.41. The decomposition tells a clean story. The VIX went up but for the wrong reason. The curve of put prices actually came down slightly. Price fell on Tuesday and existing protection moved closer to spot. The math made VIX look higher but nobody paid more for protection across strikes. Fear did not actually rise. If price snaps back tomorrow, VIX drops just as fast. That sets up Wednesday. Tomorrow's at-the-money options price an 85 point expected move from the close. Range 7426 to 7596. Thursday's options price about the same. Then next Monday's options price a much smaller expected move, dropping 5 vol points. That gap shows where the worry lives. The market has packed all the worry into the next two days. Once FOMC and OPEX clear by Thursday close, traders expect calm to return right away. There is no other worry anywhere on the curve out to mid-July. Two sessions hold the entire week's risk. VVIX sits at 87.69. VVIX measures how nervous traders are about VIX itself spiking. The historical average is around 85, so 87.69 sits in normal calm range. But a Fed day with a brand new chair making his first call usually pushes VVIX higher as traders pay up for VIX spike protection. At 87.69 right before Warsh's first decision, that hedging bid is missing. If Warsh sounds hawkish or even one dot flips to the hike side, both VIX and VVIX can jump fast since traders are not positioned for it. Downside puts on tomorrow's expiry are richly priced. The 7380 puts trade at 23 percent IV. At the money 7500 trades at 18 percent. Upside calls at 7600 trade at 16 percent. That spread between downside and upside protection is 7 vol points. By mid-July the same spread narrows to 3 points. People paid up for downside crash protection specifically into Wednesday, not because they are worried about the market overall. WHAT HAPPENED TUESDAY SPX closed 7511.35, down 42.94 points. Opened 7548.78 and quickly tagged the high at 7564.96 in the first hour. From there it was a slow bleed all session. The 7565 wall from the map held on the first try, then sellers leaned on each level on the way down. 7530 broke. 7525 broke. Price found the floor just above 7500 and closed near the low at 7508.68. The whole day was a premium grind. Anyone holding upside calls watched them get walked down strike by strike from 7570 lower. By close, every bullish bet from the open was worthless. Dow closed at a fresh record above 52000 for the first time, up 0.64 percent. S&P fell 0.57 percent, Nasdaq dropped 1.15 percent. AI names came under pressure. NVDA fell 2.4 percent. AMD, Micron and Sandisk all dropped from all-time highs. Western Digital ran the other way, up 7 percent extending Monday's 16 percent rip. Money moved out of AI mega caps into defensive and value names rather than leaving the market. Brent crude fell below 80 dollars for the first time since March 3 as markets priced the Hormuz reopening. WTI dropped below 78. Shipping analysts pushed back on the Trump team timeline saying the strait will reopen at 50 percent capacity at best within 30 days, not full reopen by Friday. Iran's army reported 84 ceasefire violations in southern Lebanon since Sunday's deal announcement. Trump publicly said Netanyahu has to be more responsible in Lebanon, adding "I'm not happy." IRGC threatened harsh response if attacks continue. Lebanon is cracking the peace deal but markets are not pricing it. SpaceX briefly became the world's fifth-largest company at a 2.74 trillion market cap. Stock up 60 percent from the 135 IPO price in three sessions. Options trading on SPCX started today. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR WEDNESDAY The whole week comes down to the next two days. FOMC at 2 PM ET. Dot plot drops at 2 PM ET too. The April vote was 8 to 4 with four dissents, first time since October 1992. This is Warsh's first call as chair and Powell now votes as a governor against him. Markets expect rates held but expect at least one hike by year end. If the dot plot shifts up to match that or even a few members flip to hike side, the unpriced surprise hits. The options market says Wednesday and Thursday hold all the worry. Tomorrow's options price an 85 point expected move. Then next Monday's options drop to a much smaller expected move. The market expects two days of action then calm. The map is set up for a binary reaction. 7495 to 7500 is the level that decides direction. Bulls who hold this take the path to 7525, 7530, then the 7585 to 7615 wall above. Bears who break it open the path to 7440 first catch, with nothing real in between. Below 7440 there is 7425 then 7405 supports, and 7300 is the bigger destination on a bigger flush. VVIX at 87.69 going into a new chair's first FOMC with a live dot plot is the kind of setup that does not show up often. If Warsh delivers a calm hold and dovish press conference, VIX falls further and AI names get bought back. If Warsh sounds hawkish or even one dot flips, both VIX and VVIX have plenty of room to run higher from where they sit now. Bottom line. Tuesday closed at 7511.35 right at the level that matters. AM options price 7481 to 7539. Wednesday options price 7426 to 7596. The 7495 to 7500 zone decides direction. Trade smaller. Do not expect a quiet day. Size positions for a real move into 2 PM ET. THE LEVELS Weekly straddle envelope is 7468 to 7552. ATM IV expected range Wednesday 7426 to 7596. 🔴 7615 major wall, biggest resistance on map today 🔴 7600 light resistance, strong put support 🔴 7585 strong resistance 🔴 7575 resistance 🔴 7565 fuel up put support 🔴 7555 fuel up 🔴 7540 fuel up 🔴 7530 strong support flipped resistance from below 🔴 7525 strong support flipped resistance from below 🟡 7510 Tuesday close · fuel down ⚡ 7505 fuel down ⚡ 7500 strong resistance, decision level top ⚡ 7495 massive fuel up massive put support, strongest cluster on the map 🟢 7470 strong support 🟢 7460 support 🟢 7450 strong support 🟢 7440 strong support, first catch in air pocket 🟢 7425 strong support 🟢 7405 strong support 🟢 7385 strong support 🟢 7355 strong support 🟢 7330 massive support 🟢 7300 massive cluster, biggest support on map IF THEN 🔼 IF SPX holds 7495 and pushes back above 7525 THEN 7530 next, then 7540 to 7565 area, then 7575 resistance Path to 7585, 7600, then 7615 walls above. The dovish FOMC outcome. ⏸ IF SPX pins between 7495 and 7525 THEN expect a tight range into the 2 PM ET decision AM straddle 7481 to 7539 likely holds until the release. 🔽 IF SPX loses 7495 THEN price drops fast to 7440, no real support in between to slow it down 7470 and 7450 are bounce zones along the way. If either holds, bulls have a chance to recover. If 7440 also breaks, 7425 is the next real catch below. 🔽 IF 7425 breaks THEN 7385 and 7355 hold as supports, 7330 is the deeper target This is the hawkish FOMC outcome. VIX moves up fast from where it sits now. THIS WEEK PREVIEW Heavy stack of catalysts. Two sessions decide the week. 1. Monday 6/15 - Done. 122 point rip. Iran MoU digitally signed. 2. Tuesday 6/16 - Done. Split tape. Dow record. S&P down 42. BOJ hiked to 1 percent. SpaceX briefly fifth-largest company. 3. Wednesday 6/17 - Fed rate decision 2 PM ET with updated projections and dot plot. Warsh at 2:30 PM ET, his first as chair. VIX Expiry at open. ATM IV prices 85 point expected move. 4. Thursday 6/18 - Jobless Claims 8:30 AM. OPEX close. Iran peace deal signed in Geneva. 5. Friday 6/19 - Market closed for Juneteenth. Key levels for the week. 7615 major wall above. 7495 to 7500 decides direction. 7440 first catch on a break. 7300 biggest support cluster below. As long as we stay above 7495 we stay bullish into OPEX. RULES 1. Tuesday closed at 7511.35 right at the level that matters. AM options price 7481 to 7539. 2. Macro day. Walls break 40 percent more often. Treat all levels as breakable. 3. 7495 to 7500 is the trade. Bulls who push back above 7525 work toward 7585 wall. Bears who break 7495 head to 7440 with nothing in between. 4. 7615 is the major wall above. Largest single resistance on the map today. Do not chase above. 5. FOMC 2 PM ET with updated dot plot. Warsh first call as chair. 6. VVIX at 87.69 going into a new chair's first FOMC is the kind of setup that does not show up often. Vol can jump fast on a hawkish surprise. 7. The options market says two days hold all the worry. Vol drops 5 points from Thursday close to next Monday open. That assumption breaks if anything spills past Thursday. 8. Downside puts on tomorrow's expiry are richly priced. People paid up for crash protection specifically into Wednesday. By mid-July the same protection is much cheaper. Fear is about Wednesday, not the broader market. 9. OPEX flow stacks into Thursday close not Friday this week. Not financial advice. Verify all levels before trading. $SPX $ES_F #SPX #ES #SPXOptions #0DTE #GEX #VIX #FinTwit

one thing i’ve found is he’s crazy good on gideon from all the pallet and breakable door spawns.

may your heart remain breakable but never by the same hand twice

This is not close to ours This is easily breakable The CB got enough time to find anyone

Wouldn’t work for ocarina. The only breakable weapons are the deku stick and the giants knife

We can just call him Mr world cup because at the rate he's going he's going to break every record breakable at the world cup.

Mbappe is breaking every record breakable this world cup, and setting new ones!

Maybe subbed but kod idk he has good striking but when it’s elite he’ll show he’s breakable. Just need to see him fight a legit contender again we seen what bsd

“Who shall separate us from the love of Christ?” Odds are you, because we don’t meet the righteous requirement of the law which is truly sinless perfection, or else God has two standards. This is like saying “hey, I adopted you, but you’re on probation.” We’re really just foster children. Our union with Christ is now breakable, and based upon a fallible hope. We are disciplined because we are legitimate children, not so we will continue as them.

Not the BREAKABLE WALL! twitch.tv/paulieesther/clip/…

breakable

These are breakable.. Pele 3 World Cups 👉 unbreakable..

You are welcome sis. As long as its plastic, its not safe. Even plastic microwave cover is not safe too. Use china breakable plate to warm food and cover food in the microwave.

It becomes very breakable when the spade becomes a father