Some thoughts on REACHING HIGH for Tuesday’s 5 o'clock Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot...
A couple of you have already asked me about the chances of the Willie Mullins-trained favourite and I can completely understand why.
On the surface, he has the sort of profile punters love.
Willie Mullins.
Ryan Moore.
Royal ownership.
Unlucky in this race last year.
Bred by Sea The Stars out of Estimate.
Lightly raced.
Plenty of stamina in the pedigree.
And now back in the same race 12 months later.
You can see why people look at him and immediately think:
“He must have been laid out for this.”
And to be fair, that may well be true.
Timeform even say this has “likely been the long-term target” after his unlucky run in the race last year.
So this isn’t me saying there’s nothing to like.
There’s plenty to like.
But the key question for me isn’t:
👉 Can Reaching High win?
It’s:
👉 Is he the right price in a 20-runner Royal Ascot handicap?
And I’m not sure that question is quite as straightforward as the market suggests.
Let’s walk through it.
1️⃣ Last year’s run was unlucky
There’s no point pretending otherwise.
Reaching High finished 9th in last year’s Ascot Stakes, beaten only around 3½ lengths, and the Racing Post analysis made it clear he didn’t get the chance to show what he could do.
He was repeatedly denied room in the straight and shaped better than the bare result.
That matters.
When a horse runs better than its finishing position suggests in a big handicap, especially at Royal Ascot, it’s always worth noting.
And given that was only his second start for Willie Mullins, it’s easy to see why people expect him to improve again.
2️⃣ But was last year’s race quite as conclusive as people think?
This is where I’d be a little careful.
Last year’s Ascot Stakes was run at a steady gallop with a fast finishing split.
Several horses met trouble.
The race turned into a bit of a messy sprint for home, with a bunched finish.
So yes, Reaching High was unlucky.
But he wasn’t the only unlucky horse.
And while he may have finished closer with a clear run, I’m not convinced last year’s race proved he was a certainty-in-waiting.
He might have won.
He might also have finished 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th.
That’s the difference.
The market sometimes treats an unlucky horse as though the race would definitely have been won with a clear passage.
Real racing isn’t always that simple.
3️⃣ This year’s pace setup could create the same problem again
This is probably the most interesting part of the race for me.
Timeform are predicting a weak pace.
That matters.
If this race is run steadily again, we could easily see another tightly-packed field turning for home, with horses queuing up for room and jockeys trying to time their challenge perfectly.
That’s not ideal when you’re backing a short-priced horse in a 20-runner staying handicap.
Reaching High is not predicted to be right on the pace.
Timeform’s pace map has him around mid-division rather than in the first wave.
That doesn’t mean he can’t win.
Ryan Moore is obviously one of the best jockeys in the world.
But if the race develops into another tactical, steadily-run affair, he may once again need the gaps to appear at the right time.
At 9/4, that matters.
4️⃣ The year-long absence
This is another obvious question.
Reaching High hasn’t run since this race last year.
Now, with Willie Mullins, that doesn’t automatically put me off.
Mullins is perfectly capable of preparing one for a target after a break.
We’ve seen that many times.
And Reaching High did run well off a long absence before, finishing a short-head second at Leopardstown after 265 days off.
So I wouldn’t be saying:
“He can’t win because he’s been off the track.”
That would be too simplistic.
But again, at the price, it’s another unknown.
He’s coming into one of Royal Ascot’s most competitive handicaps without a prep run for 364 days.
If he was 10/1, we’d probably be calling it an interesting angle.
At 9/4, punters are being asked to take quite a lot on trust.
5️⃣ The ground probably isn’t the main issue
I wouldn’t be strongly against him because of the going.
His profile suggests he acts on good to firm ground and he ran well enough in this race last year on quick ground despite the traffic problems.
He also has form on good and good to firm.
So I don’t think the argument against him should be:
“The ground has gone against him.”
For me, the bigger concern is not the ground.
It’s the combination of price, pace, traffic risk and lack of a recent run.
6️⃣ The market respects him, but it isn’t going mad
This is worth noting.
On Betfair, Reaching High has been trading around 3.3 to 3.5.
His projected BSP is around 3.4.
That’s strong.
But it isn’t exactly the behaviour of a horse being backed as though defeat is out of the question.
The market clearly respects him.
It knows the profile.
It knows the Mullins angle.
It knows Ryan Moore is booked.
But it doesn’t look like he’s being smashed off the boards.
That’s interesting.
Because if everyone genuinely thought he was thrown in, you’d expect him to be shortening much more aggressively.
7️⃣ There are other horses in the race with proper claims
This isn’t a weak 20-runner handicap where the favourite towers over exposed rivals.
Puturhandstogether (6/1) is interesting for Joseph O’Brien.
Bunting (12/1) gives Willie Mullins another possible player.
Galileo Dame (14/1) ran well at Chester lasy month and is only 1lb higher here.
Beylerbeyi (12/1) has strong staying-handicap form.
Bahadur (25/1) arrives in good form.
Tim Toe (25/1) is fascinating too stepping up markedly for the first-time to this marathon 2m4f flat trip.
Siempre Arturo (50/1) looks an interesting outsider now stepping up markedly in trip.
And several others are capable of improving or outrunning big prices.
That doesn’t mean they’re better than Reaching High.
But it does mean he has a lot of horses to beat in a race where the likely pace setup may not make things straightforward.
8️⃣ The story is very powerful
This is one of the things punters have to be careful with.
Reaching High has a brilliant story.
A Royal-owned horse, out of the late Queen’s Gold Cup winner Estimate, trained by Willie Mullins, ridden by Ryan Moore, returning to Royal Ascot after an unlucky run in the same race last year.
It’s almost too perfect.
And sometimes those stories win.
But sometimes those stories also get overbet.
That’s the danger.
The market doesn’t just price horses on form.
It also prices reputation, connections, narratives and public expectation.
And Reaching High has all of those.
9️⃣ Final thoughts
I completely understand why Reaching High is favourite.
He has a strong chance.
He may well have been trained all year with this race in mind.
If he gets a clear run and has improved from last year, he could easily win.
I’m not saying otherwise.
But there is a difference between being the most obvious horse...
and being value.
At around 9/4, I think punters are being asked to accept quite a few things:
👉 that he is fully tuned up after a year off
👉 that last year’s unlucky run proves he was ahead of his mark
👉 that the likely weak pace won’t cause traffic problems again
👉 that Ryan Moore can find the right position at the right time
👉 that none of the bigger-priced rivals are better handicapped
Maybe all of that happens.
It might.
But in a 20-runner Royal Ascot handicap, I’d want to be very sure before taking a short price.
So my view is simple:
Reaching High is a worthy favourite.
He can absolutely win.
But at the current price, I’m not convinced the market is giving punters much room for error.
And that’s usually where these races become interesting.
Because the question is not simply:
“Who is the most likely winner?”
The better question is:
“Which horse is being underestimated by the market?”
That’s what I’ll be trying to answer properly before race time.
I hope this helps a little guys. 👍