🌐🇩🇰 Ulrik Pram Gad, a Danish political scientist and Arctic policy expert at the University of Copenhagen, suggests in an article for Jyllands-Posten (October 31, 2025) that the main security threat to Greenland is not Russia or China, but potential US policy under Donald Trump.
No Russian or Chinese threat on the ground: Gad writes that in Greenland “there is not a single Russian or Chinese person preparing for an invasion”.
Russian activities in the Arctic are mostly in their own exclusive economic zone, not Greenland’s.
Trump as a real threat: Trump has repeatedly spoken of “buying” Greenland (2019, 2024) and has suggested that the US could use force if Denmark refuses. Gad considers this a more real risk than a hypothetical Russian aggression.
“It can’t be said out loud”: According to Gad, the Danish government is using the “Russian threat” as a pretext to justify massive investments in Greenland’s defense (mounts, radars, airports, military presence).
Without the “Russian bogeyman,” it would be politically impossible to push through this spending.
If the US were to actually push for Greenland’s takeover, Denmark would have no real military response – NATO would not intervene in such a conflict. Therefore, it is better to pretend to be threatened by Russia than to openly admit weakness towards an ally.
Summary of Gad’s position: “Russia is a suitable enemy – he is far away, dangerous, but not so much that it will escalate. Trump is a friend who may one day cease to be a friend. And that cannot be said out loud.”
This view reflects growing concerns in Denmark (and Greenland) about American unilateralism, especially if Trump returns to the White House in 2025. Gad's analysis is realpolitik - he points out that the real threats may not coincide with those that are publicly presented.
Source: Jyllands-Posten, 31. 10. 2025 - "Grønland rustes op mod Trump, ikke Rusland"