📄This is my guess for the content of the potential US-Iran deal based on the Iranian and American statements I have seen and what is reasonable considering the balance of power:
●The US, Iran, and their allies would commit to a 60-day truce on all fronts, including Lebanon. The 60-day can be extended (which I believe will be extended until the end of the mid-term elections).
●The US and Iran would agree to lift the blockade.
●Iran would commit not to pursue nuclear weapons. Iran has made this commitment many times before, but including it in the deal would give Trump something to highlight politically.
●Iran and the US would agree to continue negotiations for 60 days on the removal or dilution of highly enriched uranium (HEU), as well as a pause or reduction in nuclear enrichment, in exchange for full sanction relief.
●Sanctions on Iranian oil would be lifted for 60 days. While this would benefit the Iranian regime, it would also benefit Trump by helping lower oil prices more quickly.
●Iran will commit to no enrichment in this period and no attempt to recover the buried nuclear material.
●Iran commits to allow IAEA full access to all aspects of its nuclear activities.
●The US would commit not to increase its military presence in the region during the 60-day period.
🚫What you won’t see in the deal:
●No mention of payments to Iran. Any release of frozen Iranian funds would likely be handled outside the agreement to avoid creating political problems for Trump. The UAE and Qatar would most likely facilitate these transfers.
●No mention of tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. The US would not want to publicly acknowledge such an arrangement, but by omitting any reference to “no tolls,” it could effectively allow Iran to impose them on the Iranian side.
●No mention of US forces leaving the Middle East. Iran has reportedly raised this issue, but it is a non-starter for Washington and is unlikely to be included in any agreement.