May 22
There is a genuinely interesting narrative forming around $INV. The AI cooling bottleneck is real, Accelsius has credible two phase technology, and with clean execution this is the kind of name that can re rate several hundred percent. I want that to be true. But I have worries, and they are worth laying out plainly.
Start with the Hindenburg report on PureCycle from May 2021. PureCycle was incubated by Innventure, and the report documented a pattern across the same core people (Otworth, Haskell, Scott) stretching back through XL Vision and XL TechGroup.
Their model, per the report: take an early stage, pre revenue company public on a large TAM story, attach aggressive long dated projections, and let retail carry the risk.
The track record they laid out was brutal. Six prior companies taken public by this group. Two bankruptcies, three delistings, one acquisition after a roughly 95% decline. Roughly $760M of public shareholder capital incinerated. Chromavision, eMerge, AgCert, TyraTech, PetroAlgae, XL TechGroup. Former employees described forecasts built on "wild ass guessing" and companies brought public years too early.
The most uncomfortable part for current bulls is the specific PureCycle projection: $224M revenue in 2023 growing to $2,3B by 2027. Reality: PureCycle is doing roughly 2-3M per quarter today. So the original number was off by one to two orders of magnitude. Anyone who underwrote those projections at face value got destroyed on the way down.
In fairness, PureCycle did not go to zero. It survived, got its Ironton plant running, and trades around a couple billion in market cap today. So the honest lesson is not "this is a fraud." It is that this team's out year projections deserve a heavy discount. They build real things, just far slower and smaller than what gets sold to the market.
Now the part that genuinely improves the picture. Accelsius operating management is largely separate from the PureCycle culprits. CEO Josh Claman is a 30 year data center operator, ex Dell GM UK and multi billion dollar unit leader, not a serial promoter. The CTO, Dr Richard Bonner, is an actual two phase thermodynamics specialist with a PhD, 50 plus papers and 5 patents. The supply chain chief ran server supply chain planning at Dell. That is a real operator and engineer team with the exact domain expertise PureCycle's team was accused of lacking. This is the strongest single rebuttal to a lazy "same guys" dismissal.
The caveat: capital allocation, dilution and the projection setting still sit at the Innventure parent level, with the team that carries the PureCycle history. So you are betting on a credible operating team inside a holding structure run by the people with the track record.
Which brings in the activism. Ascent Capital, a roughly 7% holder, sent a hostile board letter in February. Sharp language, patience "run out," and four demands: cut overhead, stop parent funding of ventures beyond Accelsius, redirect capital into Accelsius, reconstitute the board. The company conceded on most of it through spring: board changes, a capital allocation framework, large G&A cuts. Then in May, Ascent flipped to a public letter of support and the stock jumped.
Read that arc carefully though. Ascent's cost basis is around $3,40 and the stock is near $6,50, so they are sitting on a large gain. A support letter from a holder up 85% is not the same as an independent all clear; they have every incentive to stop rocking a boat they are now profitably long. Governance improved, which is real, but the holdco model is intact and there is a large resale shelf enabling continued issuance into strength.
Net: the tech tailwind and the Accelsius operating team are genuinely compelling. The parent team's history and the dilution structure are the reasons to size this as what it is. Watch recognized revenue, not pipeline. Watch whether the projections this time resolve closer to the promise than PureCycle's did.
May 22
Have been pondering revenue growth for $INV and trying to connect dots for Accelsius.
What we already know: they are targeting a roughly $100M run rate exiting this year. That points to roughly 8-9M in December. Full year revenue likely lands in the 30-40M range. We also know from a January interview that the CEO said their qualified pipeline was about 8x the 2026 revenue plan.
From here we have to start making aggressive Fermi assumptions. Combining the exit run rate with aggressive 2027 growth, revenue for 2027 could plausibly land somewhere in the 200-320M range. Past that there are no dots left to connect, so you have to think about the sector as a whole.
Two phase liquid cooling could very well become the dominant form of cooling for next gen chips. Air does not cut it at all, and single phase struggles past roughly 1,500W per chip, which Rubin and beyond already exceed.
TAM numbers floated are roughly $40B by 2033. Assume 70% of that is two phase as chips keep moving to higher wattages; call it $28B for the addressable market.
Then you have to assume market share, which is a genuinely horrible task. You could slap 10% on $28B and call it done, but that is not the smartest way to go about it. It could be more, it could be less. The point is that connecting the 2027 run rate to a 2033 TAM times share gives you a sense of direction, not a target.
So I think a weighted average of several paths is the sensible move:
Bear case, total commercial failure, 10%.
Lacklustre case, they grow but never lock in major players, maybe $500M in 2033, 40%.
Strong case, they convert and land somewhere around 1-3B in 2033, 45%.
Ultra bull, they take roughly a third of the market and do close to $10B, 5%.
Run those against sensible multiples and a valuation of a few billion for Accelsius is genuinely possible. The honest caveat: that is Accelsius enterprise value, not INV market cap. INV owns under half of Accelsius and that stake plus the share count both dilute as they fund the scale up, so a lot gets lost between the subsidiary and the per share number. You have to watch for confirmation along the way.
At the current price it definitely does not seem like the most expensive thing ever seen.
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$INV 보수적 관점
제가 처음 $INV 에 관심을 갖게 된 것은 단연 @AccelsiusATX 라는 냉각 솔루션에 대한 기술적 확신 때문이었습니다.
하지만 너무 낙관론만으로 제가 보유한 주식을 대하다 보면 분명 실패로 귀결될 수도 있습니다.
이제는 $INV 를 보수적인 관점에서 다시 돌아볼 필요가 있으며, 이는 제가 이 기업에 계속 확신을 가질 것인지에 대한 의사 결정에 중요한 영향을 미칠 것입니다.
먼저 기업의 역사를 돌아보고자 합니다.
$INV 라는 기업의 역사적 내러티브는 과연 신뢰할 만한가? $INV 라는 기업의 전신과 과거를 돌아보면 답은 "그렇지 않다"입니다.
"Innventure는 사실 이름이 바뀌었을 뿐 1990년대부터 계속 함께 일해온 시리얼 인큐베이터 그룹의 가장 최근 시도입니다.(그 전신은 XL TechGroup) 이 기업의 전신의 트랙 레코드는 객관적으로 좋지 않습니다 — 6개의 IPO가 실패했고, 약 $760M(당시 시점 환율들로 환산했을 때, 약 8,740억원)의 주주 자본이 소각된 기록이 있기 때문입니다."
물론 위 내용만 보면 투자해서는 안될 기업으로 보입니다.(저는 이 주식을 보유 중임을 밝힙니다.)
준비 중인 $INV 관련 아티클을 확인하시고 판단하시면 좋겠습니다.
- 본 글은 투자 권유가 아니며, 최종 투자 판단과 책임은 투자자 본인에게 있습니다.
bloomberg.com/profile/compan…
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Apr 20
So this is how a BA graduate got an H-1B visa. Sreenivas becoming an engineer signals one part of his identity transformation. There’s so much else that happens in the H-1B realm regarding identity: H-1Bs forced to (or many times willingly) working on fake resumes, arranging proxy interviews, ‘outsourcing’ their jobs to techies in India—and much more.
In @KumarXclusive’s case, this transformation was quite drastic. As his X handle indicates, his first name is no longer “Sreenivas”; it’s “Kumar”. How? His employer, 4M TechGroup, literally changed his name. A sneak peak of that scene from the book. 9/12
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22 Dec 2025
🤖Podsumowanie komunikatów giełdowych przygotowane przez AI
🔔 Alerty espiai.pl
#OrangePolska 📡 z APG kupi NexeraHolding (EV 1,5 mld zł, ok. 1 mld zł długu); plan wniesienia do ŚwiatłowódInwestycje; ~800 tys. HP, ~280 tys. klientów; wymaga zgód
#BankPolskaKasaOpieki 🏦 aneks do Term Sheet z PZU: podział PZU połączenie z Bankiem; cel do 31.12.2027; warunek: publikacja zmian do 12/2026, wejście w życie do 04/2027
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#ASBIScEnterprises 📦 szacunek przychodów XI’25 ~393 mln USD ( 29% r/r)
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#XTPL 🧪 kontrakt z TechGroup (EE) na produkcję DPS; elastyczne moce, niższy kapitał obrotowy; cel: w 2–3 lata 100% DPS u partnera
#Grenevia ☀️ PST (OZE) przeniosła własność portfela PV; zapłata ~36 mln EUR (ok. 152 mln zł), możliwa korekta in minus
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#MostostalWarszawa 🏗️ PGE EO odstąpiła od umowy na ESP Porąbka‑Żar; kary 110,05 mln zł wezwanie zwrotu zaliczki 151,59 mln zł; spółka analizuje podstawy
#CoalEnergy 🪨 opublikowano audytowane raporty roczne FY2025: skonsolidowany i jednostkowy (do 30.06.2025)
#Incuvo 🥽 Green Hell VR w subskrypcji Meta Horizon od 01.01.2026; korekta raportu (usunięto błędne odniesienie)
#IMS 🌸 klient retail wypowiedział umowę aromamarketingu (~1 300 lokalizacji), koniec 31.03.2026; trwa przetarg, spółka składa ofertę
#EuropejskieCentrumOdszkodowań ⚖️ start proporcjonalnych wypłat wierzycielom (III–IV rata układu) z uwagi na płynność i postępowanie o zmianę układu; podział pro rata
#Miraculum 💄 strategia 2026–2030: wzmacnianie marek (PaniWalewska, Wars, JOKO, Miraculum, Prastara, Chopin); pełny dokument na stronie
#KBJ 💻 sprzedaż udziałów SoftyLabs i R_S Group za 1,8 mln zł; jednorazowe obniżenie wyniku netto ~5,2 mln zł; poprawa cash flow; utrzymanie współpracy z R_S
#JRHAlternatywnaSpółkaInwestycyjna 💰 zakup 250 tys. akcji DistrictORG za 2,545 mln zł (płatność do 15.01.2026); razem 450 tys. akcji; projekt CampusAI
#Zortrax 🖨️ odpis goodwill 23,53 mln zł w sprawozdaniu 2024 (IV kw.); jednorazowy, niegotówkowy; po teście utraty wartości (spadek przychodów/projektów)
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22 Nov 2025
Just a chill gathering, $techgroup
Jeff bezos share it and now Elon Musk answer
Looks promising
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$techgroup hust a chill gathering
1 day , 10 M activity
Aped
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$techgroup 14 K mc
9tSaEksL2kuDZPjTeU25BcdanCvSTD36WYakgXvtpump
I love this viral theme
APED
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22 Nov 2025
Very nice - 2x in a dead market $techgroup
But gad damn - Elon replied to this hysterical meme, 2x is lacking
His reply to $capitalism sent it from 20k to 800k💀
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22 Nov 2025
Elon finally acknowledges the $techgroup meme by @cb_doge and is still at 12k
A comment from him on something like this used to send things 10x in an instant. Still viral, little bag in case
9tSaEksL2kuDZPjTeU25BcdanCvSTD36WYakgXvtpump
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22 Nov 2025
Holding $techgroup until @elonmusk tells us what really went down this night.
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22 Nov 2025
$techgroup is jokes
Elon reply as well
15k
He replied to the $capitalism post and it went from 20k to 800k in one candle
This is lacking
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22 Nov 2025
Elon finally acknowledges the $techgroup meme by @cb_doge and is still at 12k
A comment from him on something like this used to send things 10x in an instant. Still viral, little bag in case
9tSaEksL2kuDZPjTeU25BcdanCvSTD36WYakgXvtpump
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22 Nov 2025
Hmm I thought we had this already with $techgroup ?
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22 Nov 2025
Holding $techgroup until @elonmusk tells us what really went down this night.
9tSaEksL2kuDZPjTeU25BcdanCvSTD36WYakgXvtpump
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