The deeper story here is not “defence versus welfare”, it’s Starmer’s addiction to looking tough on everything while refusing to level with anyone about who pays.
On welfare, we’ve seen ministers complain in private that “every meeting is about who we can tax to pay benefits for others”, while in public they cling to manifesto tax locks and hope stealth measures will do the dirty work.
On defence, it’s the same trick: promise 2.5 per cent, hint at 3 per cent by 2035, rule out borrowing, refuse to touch protected budgets, swear welfare is safe – and then dump the whole arithmetic headache onto the MoD with an order to find billions in “efficiencies” that in reality mean fewer ships, fewer jets, fewer troops and slower modernisation.