Solar physicist at LMSAL (alum UTkyAst). I believe space weather missions (for safe human space exploration) need a way higher investment than science missions.
Joined October 2013
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MOST POWERFUL FLARE IN SOLAR CYCLE 25.
It was X9.0 in GOES X-ray measurement. It was quite eruptive, leaving a coronal wave. The eruption/CME seemed to result from magnetic reconnection rather than ideally from a pre-existing flux rope. It may come in less than 3 days.
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Still waiting for the CME that was launched around the midnight of June 10/11? People expected the CME to arrive on June 13 and to cause a G2 storm. Do they think the small enhancement of the solar wind around 09:40 (marked below) is what they predicted? Another #Sadstory ?
Will the CME associated with a C6.7 flare in AR 14465 arrive on 13 June 2026?
There was a nice CME around the midnight of 10/11 June, and both NOAA and NASA predict it to arrive on the 13th.
I feel it may not arrive as it was headed largely to east.
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C9.0 flare also from AR 14465. Like its predecessor, C6.7 around midnight, the global disturbances were unimpressive with a weak coronal wave, but they seem to have triggered small eruptions in the southwest (to lower right) direction. Only marginal CME in STEREO/COR2.
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Today's M1.8 flare in AR 14461 was associated with a more promising CME, following the confined C8.8 flare in AR 14456. It was more extended, covering the ecliptic. The coronal wave was also pronounced, and the directly related shock wave was responsible for a minor SEP event.
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Were you impressed by the latest geomagnetic storm. I wasn't. It was at the G2 (Kp=6 ) level for only three hours. Even though CME-associated major flares occurred on after another in the same region (AR 14455), making people expect enhanced disturbances, I was not convinced.
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Sorry, I meant 2026-06-02 16:31, not 2025.
I use AIA running ratio movies in color to find the extension of solar eruptions. This captures the M3.3 flare in AR 14455 (2025-06-02 16:31). An unrelated eruption on the east limb was impressive, but the M3.3 eruption may have been the central ingredient of the latest G2 storm.
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I use AIA running ratio movies in color to find the extension of solar eruptions. This captures the M3.3 flare in AR 14455 (2025-06-02 16:31). An unrelated eruption on the east limb was impressive, but the M3.3 eruption may have been the central ingredient of the latest G2 storm.
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Arrived!
The anticipated CME (CME-driven shock wave) has arrived (~04:25 06/05/2026). Congrats to those forecasters whose predictions were accurate to less than a few hours.
The magnetic field is presently northward. Can you predict how it evolves over the next 12 hours?
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Latest LASCO C2 images with GOES X-ray light curves from cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov. See how the intense flares in AR 14455 were associated with CMEs. Note that the prominent CME shortly after the M3.3 flare (around 2026/06/02 17:00) was from a different eruption on the east limb.
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Thank you, @NWSSWPC. I enjoyed the video.
Speaking of the latest M3.3 flare, the most interesting thing to me is loop oscillations seen in lower right of this movie of SDO/AIA 171 Å images. We would need the AIA spatial resolution and cadence to observe these phenomena.
Latest SWPC video update regarding sunspots, magnetic flux emergence, and eruptive events. And, just 5 minutes or so after recording this video, an M3 (R1) solar flare occurred right from that emerged flux! Check out the video to learn more!
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A big eruption on the invisible side of the Sun on 25 May 2026, responsible for a S1 radiation storm, which was nicely captured in this SDO/AIA running-ratio movie. It occurred ~55° behind the west limb, according to STEREO. Note an ongoing C-class flare on the east limb.
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There was an SEP event (peak >10 MeV proton flux 23.8 pfu) late on 25 May, after a C4.6 flare. The CCOR-1 movie shows a CME heading to northwest. My conclusion: this CME was responsible for the SEP event, which had nothing to do with the C4.6 flare. The CME was from the far side.
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Animation of coronagraph (LASCO C2) data side by side with the GOES X-ray light curves for the past week. No very energetic CMEs are found, from either front or far side of the Sun. There may have been intense flares on the far side, but they were likely non-eruptive.
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Today's solar eruption associated with an M1.9 flare in AR 14436. The coronal wave does not look like strongly driven in low altitudes; no type II radio burst in NOAA's report. But the eruption may be strong higher up. There is a chance of glancing Earth during 19-20 May.
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