Joined November 2024
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Mar 5
Introducing Hyperview Forecasts đź”®
Prediction markets contain massive amounts of information.
But probabilities are fragmented across many outcomes.
Forecast aggregates these probabilities into a single expected outcome.
Main use cases for now include:
🔹Price markets → expected price
🔹Event markets → expected timeline
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Apr 11
🚨🇮🇷 Iran no longer knows where its own naval mines are in the Strait of Hormuz.
The mines were deployed without precise records. Those whose coordinates existed have drifted with the currents.
Only a narrow corridor remains, accessible as a toll.
Washington says Tehran lacks the technical capabilities to neutralize them.
This will not help reopening the Strait of Hormuz and according to @Polymarket, the Strait of Hormuz traffic will not return to normal by end of April.
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Apr 11
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Apr 10
Trump wants Iran to stop charging fees to tankers going through the Strait of Hormuz.
He also said:Â "Iran is doing a very poor job... of allowing oil to pass through... That is not the agreement we have!"
According to @Polymarket, the Strait of Hormuz traffic will not return to normal by end of April, and a permanent peace deal between the US and Iran will probably not happen before June.
Apr 10
⚡️ TRUMP: IRAN BETTER NOT BE CHARGING HORMUZ TOLLS
“There are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Strait of Hormuz, they better stop now!”
"Iran is doing a very poor job... of allowing oil to pass through... That is not the agreement we have!"
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Apr 9
🚨The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains tense despite the US-Iran ceasefire.
Trump confirmed that US forces would remain positioned in the region until a "real deal" is signed, with a direct threat if it is not respected.
Trump's claims of a "complete opening" of the strait have not materialized: only 3-4 vessels transited yesterday.
@Polymarket anticipates between 20 and 40 ships by end of April, far from the 3,800 vessels per month in normal times.
Iran reportedly told mediators it plans to limit passage to ~12 ships/day and impose tolls, which Washington has publicly rejected. WTI crude reacted by climbing back above $98/barrel.
The Iranian parliament released a statement accusing the US and Israel of already violating 3 of the 10 clauses of the negotiation framework:
1. No ceasefire in Lebanon
2. A drone's intrusion into Iranian airspace
3. US refusal to recognize Iran's right to nuclear enrichment
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Apr 8
🚨Is the US-Iran ceasefire already over?
The passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz has been stopped, per Iran's Fars News Agency.
Iran says it will withdraw from the ceasefire if Israel continues attacks on Lebanon and is preparing potential responses.
On @Polymarket, the "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April" market saw important volatility in the past 24h, going from a 64% chance of return to normal to only 32%.
BREAKING: The passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz has been stopped, per Iran's Fars News Agency.
Iran says it will withdraw from the ceasefire if Israel continues attacks on Lebanon and it is preparing potential responses.
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Apr 6
OpenAI's CFO is pushing back on Sam Altman, the IPO could be at risk over runaway spending concerns.
According to @Polymarket, OpenAI is unlikely to go public this year.
OpenAI brought in $13 billion in revenue in 2025, while spending $8 billion over the same period, per Boursorama.
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Apr 6
🚨🇮🇷 US & Iran are discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the Iran War, per Axios.
According to @Polymarket, there is a 55% chance of having a ceasefire before the end of June.
There is only 28% chance of having a ceasefire in April.
A US official said the Trump administration gave Iran several proposals in recent days, but so far Iranian officials have not accepted.
BREAKING: The US, Iran, and a group of regional mediators are discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the Iran War, per Axios.
Details include:
1. This is being described as a "last-ditch effort" to prevent "massive strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure"
2. Mediators are discussing the terms for two-phased deal; the first phase would a potential 45-day ceasefire during which a permanent end to the war would be negotiated
3. A US official said Trump gave Iran several proposals in recent days, but so far Iranian officials have not accepted
4. The sources said the chances for reaching a partial deal over the next 48 hours are still "slim"
US stock market futures have erased all losses.
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Mar 29
🚨Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours.
According to @Polymarket, the average number of ships crossing the strait each week remains uncertain, but the most likely scenario is between 0 and 10 ships per week.
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Mar 29
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Mar 26
🚨 Trump revealed the gift Iran gave to the United States.
Donald Trump claims that Iran offered the U.S. 10 oil tankers to demonstrate its willingness to reach a peace deal.
However, the prediction market tied to a ceasefire between Iran & the US has not moved.
Mar 26
🚨JUST NOW: TRUMP REVEALS IRANS “VERY BIG PRESENT”
President Trump discloses that Iran gifted the U.S. 10 "big boats of oil" to show they're serious about making a peace deal.
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Mar 24
🚨Marine traffic data shows limited movement returning to the Strait of Hormuz.
Some vessels are being charged ~$2M for safe passage, excluding US- and Israeli-linked vessels.
According to @Polymarket, fewer than 10 ships are expected to pass through the Strait per week by the end of March.
Mar 24
🔥UPDATE: Marine traffic data shows limited movement returning to the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian lawmaker Alaeddin Boroujerdi claims some vessels are being charged ~$2M for safe passage, excluding US and Israeli-linked vessels.
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Mar 23
🚨Hyperview on the Iranian situation
After a volatile day with multiple twists, here’s what prediction markets on @Polymarket are pricing:
• A ceasefire between Iran and the US is expected around June 5, according to our forecast model.
• The market for a nuclear deal between Iran and the US is up 16% in the past 24 hours, now pricing a 33.5% probability of an agreement before June 30.
• Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has a 35% chance of returning to normal by the end of April.
• Odds of crude oil reaching $90 by the end of March dropped from 83% to 63% over the past 24 hours.
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Mar 19
Markets have just priced in that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in April and June following Jerome Powell’s speech.
This @Polymarket event has jumped by 18.0% over the past 24 hours.
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