Yep, its good to think in ranges and averages, and to prepare for short-term variance when thinking about expected scores.
IMO one of the biggest mistakes people make is retry spamming to get fcs on their locals, then expecting an fc in match.
Tournament Pro Tip:
Do NOT practice too much(please).
If you got an fc play after like 30 tries, It makes you feel like "i surely fc this in match" and if you get 300k in match, your mentality would be gone and will ruin the whole match.
Don't make your expectation too high.