🚨 New 13G: $2.6B AI Infrastructure Bet from Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness LP -
$NBIS
Situational Awareness LP just disclosed a 5.6% stake in Nebius Group, equal to 12,410,060 shares. At today's ~$208 close, that's a ~$2.58 billion position - and the trigger date for the 13G is May 19, 2026.
NBIS is up ~10% in after-hours trading on the news.
At ~$228, the position is now worth ~$2.83B.At this size, Nebius now stands as Situational Awareness's largest disclosed position based on the most recent filings. The previous top holding in the Q1 13F (filed for positions as of March 31) was a $2.04B notional SMH PUT, and NBIS wasn't on that filing at all - meaning the position was built entirely between April 1 and the May 19 disclosure trigger.
This is the fund run by 23-year-old Leopold Aschenbrenner, the former OpenAI Superalignment researcher whose June 2024 manifesto "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead" argued that AGI is coming by 2027 and the world isn't ready. He launched the fund weeks later with $225M. As of Q1 2026, disclosed U.S. equity exposure stands at ~$5.5B - a multi-hundred-percent return in roughly 12 months. The fund returned 47% in H1 2025 versus 6% for the S&P. Backers include Patrick and John Collison (Stripe), Nat Friedman (ex-GitHub CEO), and Daniel Gross. Carl Shulman is co-portfolio manager and is also listed on the 13G.
The thesis behind the Nebius position fits the broader Situational Awareness playbook. Q1 13F shows Aschenbrenner is short the semiconductor complex and long the AI picks-and-shovels: 8 of the fund's top 12 positions are PUTs - on SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF),
$NVDA,
$AMD, TSM, ASML, ORCL, AVGO, and MU. The longs are concentrated in power (Bloom Energy 6.4%), storage (SanDisk 5.3%), and neoclouds (CoreWeave 4.1%, IREN 2.9%, Core Scientific 2.8%, Applied Digital 2.3%). Now Nebius joins as a major new long - and goes straight to the top of the book.
What Nebius does: an Amsterdam-based AI infrastructure company that emerged from the restructuring of Russia's Yandex, led by Yandex co-founder Arkady Volozh. It builds GPU-dense data centers and rents capacity to hyperscalers and AI labs.
The contracted backlog is what makes this remarkable. Nebius has signed $46B in long-term AI compute contracts: $19.4B with Microsoft (September 2025), expanded to $27B with Meta (March 2026), plus a $2B equity investment from Nvidia. Q1 2026 revenue grew 684% YoY to $399M. Management is targeting $7-9B in exit ARR by end of 2026 (up from $1.25B in 2025) and planning $16-20B in 2026 capex.
Key metrics:
- Market cap ~$52B at close, trading ~$228 after-hours (up ~10% on the 13G news, ~95% YTD)
- Q1 2026 revenue $399M ( 684% YoY), adj EBITDA $129.5M
- Total contracted backlog: $46B (Microsoft $19.4B, Meta up to $27B)
- 2026 capex plan: $16-20B; targeting 2.5 GW contracted compute by year-end
- 2026 ARR target: $7-9B (vs $1.25B exit 2025)
- 15 analysts: Buy consensus, avg PT $231 (Citi raised to $287 post-Q1)
- Situational Awareness 5.6% stake: 12,410,060 shares, ~$2.58B at close / ~$2.83B at current after-hours
ALT Leopold Aschenbrenner