📈 Manifest is this weekend. Will we see you there? Our internal market says 91% yes. Push it to 100%: we're co-hosting Forecast & Coffee with @precogmarkets and @seer_pm at The Hidden Cafe in Berkeley, the day before the conference kicks off. Resolve YES by registering ▸ luma.com/3rwm2l1r

Wondering how the VoteHub forecast works? Here's a short blurb here and a link to our more detailed methodology statement below: votehub.com/wp-content/uploa…

New Podcast! I interview @GaetenD (top-30 politics trader on @Kalshi) on the midterms and 2028. He thinks Rubio should be the Republican favourite and he doesn't rate Newsom, AOC or Harris as Democrat favourites. Youtube: youtube.com/watch?v=iC-mbO64…

This space was a really interesting view into the Judy Shelton Y and N holders’ reasoning. I’ll summarize the arguments (and counter arguments on both sides) TOP JUDY SHELTON Y ARGUMENTS: #1 Trump has not formally sent the Warsh nomination to Congress, and there’s no reason why this shouldn’t have happened yet (because the White House and Congress are close to one another) 2 Counterarguments from the N holders: A) The White House is waiting for Thom Tillis (R) to get off of the committee to advance his nomination as he has signaled opposition to Warsh because of the Fed investigation B) there is a government shutdown happening rn (though the counter argument is that Trump didn’t send this before the gov shutdown, and the shutdown wouldn’t impact this) #2 Judy Shelton is the pro-digital and crypto choice. Kevin Warsh is the establishment. With crypto in the tank rn, Trump could change his mind to the “pro-tokenization” candidate for Fed Chair to please crypto holders with the Midterms coming up 1 N counter argument: Judy Shelton is pro-gold standard which is different from being pro-crypto #3 Trump changes his mind often, so walking a nomination back would be unsurprising (especially when Kevin Warsh is in the Epstein Files) 1 N counter argument: Even if Trump does walk back Walsh, Judy Shelton is unlikely to be the next choice #4 Judy Shelton has been making cryptic statements and symbols (maybe Trump, too) that could suggest she is the dark-horse candidate. There was something about a Phoenix pin that I didn’t catch No real counterarguments here, as they were dismissed #5 XRP holders are YOLO’ing this. Many know it’s not likely to hit, but if it does, they will all be right and XRP will moon. No real counterarguments here #6 WHERE IS KEVIN WARSH? He hasn’t made any public statements on being nominated apparently This needs to be verified by N holders TOP JUDY SHELTON N ARGUMENTS 1) Trump has announced Kevin Warsh to be the nominee, and the delay on him sending the nomination is totally justified 1 Y counterargument: Trump does many unprecedented things, and there’s no real reason to delay this unless it signals something deeper 2) If Judy Shelton were actually a possibility to be Fed Chair, it would impact the traditional finance bond markets, and there’s been no movement there 1 Y counter argument: Prediction markets are the first moving signal and she is still priced at 5% which isn’t high 3) Trump would never nominate a woman to be Fed Chair because he is sexist 2 Y counterarguments: A) He’s nominated plenty of women to positions of power including Pam Bondi and Kristi Noem B) Trump would be “owning the libs” by nominating a woman 4) Judy Shelton Y holders are not smart and just doing this on vibes Counterargument: Judy Shelton Y is a lot cheaper than N, and they are not expecting it to hit. They think it’s a good lottery ticket. 5) The price movement in favor of Judy Shelton Y is expected because of the time value of money in the prediction market “bond” market because it’s unclear when when Trump will send the nomination to Congress. It’s not a real signal. Counterargument: The volume of money being added to the markets is significant and is in many cases a signal of the “wisdom of crowds” Let me know if I missed anything. It was an interesting conversation all around!

After being asked to be more transparent about app updates, @Polymarket has shipped/announced: - public PolyUS APIs - 5-minute crypto up/down markets - permissionless liquidity reward sponsorship - DomeAPI acquisition - updated matching engine Ivan explains how more this has been a longtime request of the community, and (at least for now) it seems like they are listening!