Bitcoin breaking out. I’m levered long from 64050. Stop loss just below the horizontal. $IBIT bitcoin:native

Long front-end rates looks attractive in the short-term. Rate hike expectations could come down substantially from a combination of an MOU signing and Warsh out-dove-ing consensus. x.com/intelarb/status/206624… /SFR $DXY $TLT

Had the right idea, just missed the trigger pull… one tweet (which everyone knew was coming) and Gold 4% from the lows

Actually I’m an idiot, now I’m thinking it’s definitely the lack of volumes through the Strait. Think of all the parts of the Middle East economy that are connected to the export of oil. Governments, corporations, local businesses are now all starved of cash flow. Why wouldn’t they be selling gold here? (FWIW I still think the SpaceX thing is directionally correct, just not big enough to move hundreds of billions of total gold market cap) $GLD

Gold the most oversold since October 2023 with an RSI down at 24. That by itself isn’t a screaming by signal, a lot of oversold conditions have occurred at the beginning of bear markets. The more potentially bullish aspect is that it’s basically a rates trade for the time being. Since the Iran war started, Gold has been strongly correlated with Sofr. Long only gold here is a bet that Warsh brings down hike expectations and is dovish vs consensus. (Which I think is a decent bet.) I said yesterday the way to play Silver (and Gold) was long straddles. But with the put side already working well in advance; cheap upside calls are getting more interesting. $GLD $GDX

Gold down-3% with both DXY and 2s yield lower. I haven't seen anyone make the connection between Gold and SpaceX. Gold had a lot of Middle Eastern demand in 2025, theoretically they would need to room for this SpaceX IPO. (there is articles going around about strong Saudi demand for the IPOs). You could also make the same argument for crypto... $SPCX $IBIT $GLD

Wheat down 11 out of 12 days heading into this week. Only 4th time ever. Long with a tight stop on front-month. Bouncing right at support… /W1

Silver straddles? 🪙 Here’s an interesting one on silver: Basically, if you look throughout history, silver has a tendency to go on these parabolic-shaped rallies. And after the rallies lose momentum, they have historically chopped for a bit, before leading to either A. Some break that key support and which has consistently led to a much larger drawdown (and usually a prolonged bear market). See 1980, 2011, etc… Or B. Silver has bounced off this key support, created higher lows, and then goes into another parabolic rising phase. See 2003, 2024, etc… Today, it looks like silver is really right at that key support level. What makes this especially interesting is that you have a new Fed chair and a very important Fed meeting coming up. Obviously, this will have large implications for the dollar and precious metals. With silver at such a key level heading into next week, it feels like the easiest trade might just be to get long straddles. Likely, big moves ahead for silver, whether that's finally rebounding and creating the next leg higher, or finally breaking through this key support and flushing lower after months of chop. The other thing that makes this interesting is implied volatility has come way down and is near 6 months lows. $SLV $SIL $GLD

Valuations do not matter. All that matters is flows. Trulieve 2-year high on NYSE listing. $TCNNF

Vibes post Knicks win were top notch today

Aaaaaand best day ever for Long/short low vol factor equities vs. Long/short momentum. $SPLV $XLV $MTUM $SMH

“*LARGEST 1D: VALUE v HIGH VOL move in 10 years* Value 600bp HIGH VOL -900bp” -@JaredKubin

And so it begins $IAK 2.4% $XLV 1.4% $XLP 1.4% $SMH -5.0% $MU -5.9% $AMD -6.4% $EWY -8.2%

The question is: How much of the sell-off is driving by broad liquidity tightening vs a realization the Gov can steal your crypto if they want to…