10 years of timestamped calls. Every link verifiable. 3 BTC cycles, equities, commodities, macro. 👇

Cyclical data firmed this week and the bottom-callers got loud. But the two rows that built this bear, inflation and rates, never budged. PPI printed 6.5% YoY. That is not a thaw, it is stagflation wearing a bull jacket. I stay defensive into the dot plot.

Most traders who don't trade options assume options markets are someone else's problem. Fabio Ruggeri's data suggests that's been wrong for the past five years. Pre-2020, options volume was dominated by institutional hedging. The effect on price action was real but manageable. After 2020, retail options participation exploded. The flows got large enough that market maker hedging became a primary driver of short-term price behavior in indices like SPX and in individual large-cap stocks. When market makers are net short gamma, they buy as price rises and sell as it falls, which amplifies moves. When they're net long gamma, they do the opposite, suppressing moves and compressing volatility. This regime switch happens at known price levels, and the data to identify them is publicly available. Most price-based systems were built before this dynamic was this influential. The traders ignoring options flow are operating with a model of how price behaves that the market partly left behind after 2020.

Crypto stopped trading on-chain and started trading rates. The tell is the CME line: BTC, ETH, SOL get pushed by macro hedgers regardless of fundamentals, non-CME names trade their own book. That dispersion, not "is crypto up or down", is where the long/short edge lives.

Sooooo tired of winning...Jan 2025 feels a decade away after all us crypto guys been through.

What a scam!

Everyone is calling $63k the macro bottom. The weekly trend turned down weeks ago and never reclaimed. I am short from ~$65.7k, stop $71,383. Every rip is a trap until that takes a weekly close. The binary is Warsh's dot plot on 6/17, not the tape into it.

I got robbed today in broad daylight by the fund management company who let brand new investors into our fund at the last minute to get the gains we have earned by holding fund shares for years waiting for SpaceX to come public. This fund company earns over 1.5% of the assets every year for many years and then gives away the profits that are due to the shareholders in the month before the IPO. Disappointed and disgusted

This matches how I run it. Covered calls on a BTC and ETH spot bag, bull put spreads sold at support, risk capped per lot before the trade goes on. The yield is durable because the demand to hedge uncertainty never switches off. You know the loss before you enter.

Options yields are durable because their underlying demand is always there: uncertainty. Investors want to hedge against outcomes they cannot predict. Miners want to protect revenues, funds want downside protection and treasuries want to cap risk. Every one of these participants are willing to pay an option premium AKA yield to transfer that uncertainty to someone else. Bull markets, bear markets, even periods of low volatility, it doesn't matter. The need to transfer risk remains, because uncertainty never goes away.