Tuesday College Baseball BEST BET 🍀
Record: 25-19 ( 7.69 U)
⚾️ | West Virginia vs Troy: 2pm EST
Win or go home. All hands on deck.
West Virginia got the best of Troy the first time these two teams played.
It was an epic battle, as both teams traded leads until the eighth inning, when WVU finally broke through in the eighth with two runs to secure a 7-5 victory.
It was anyone's ballgame, which was surprising considering WVU's ace had led them to easy victories all season.
However, Troy knocked him out in the third inning. WVU had no issues with Troy's pitching either.
Watching the game, it felt like these two teams were very pretty evenly matched; WVU just happened to come out on top that day.
WVU laid an egg in Game 2 against UNC, while Troy beat the brakes off a great Ole Miss squad.
Carrying that momentum into this game, combined with a lack of pitching options for West Virginia, Troy can absolutely pull off the upset.
Dawson Montesa is the likely starter for WVU. He's a solid arm, just not on the level of Cole or Yehl. His 3.74 SIERA is respectable, but he has a major walk problem (5.0 BB/9).
He has also been prone to allowing the long ball, surrendering 13 home runs in 71 innings.
That's not a great recipe against this powerful Troy offense, which is averaging 9.8 runs per game over its last 10.
Troy has hit nearly twice as many home runs as WVU this season and holds a slight edge in both OPS and wRC .
This team is also battle-tested, playing the seventh-hardest strength of schedule in the country compared to WVU's 46th-ranked schedule.
Cooper Ellingsworth is the likely starter for Troy. On the surface, the numbers look ugly with an ERA north of six, but the underlying metrics tell a different story.
He owns a 3.55 SIERA, which is better than Montesa's 3.74 mark, and his walk rate is nearly half of Montesa's while striking out close to ten per nine innings.
I firmly believe Troy enters this game with more momentum after its latest win, while WVU looked lifeless in its most recent outing.
It's difficult to beat a good team twice, and this time, Troy will have the last ABs.
Montesa is more proven than Ellingsworth, but the superior SIERA and K-BB profile has my attention.
WVU has the overall pitching advantage, but it's not enough to justify a line of this size. Don't be shocked when Troy pulls off the upset.
The Pick: Troy ML ( 186)
- Risk 0.5 U
@BetMGM
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