This is exactly why most traders lose money - they don't understand the indicators they're using.
RSI uses the last 14 weekly close prices to calculate the ratio of average gains to average losses. Context is EVERYTHING.
COVID CRASH - Last 14 weeks before RSI low (March 9, 2020):
→ Started at $7,118 → rallied to $10,151 ( 42.6%) → crashed to $5,361
→ 6 up weeks averaging 6.70% gains
→ 7 down weeks averaging -8.35% losses
→ The massive bullish run before the crash inflated the "average gain" component
→ RSI: 33.33
CURRENT - Last 14 weeks (Feb 2, 2026):
→ Started at $104,722 → consistently grinding down to $76,130 (-27.3%)
→ 5 up weeks averaging only 2.33% gains
→ 8 down weeks averaging -5.18% losses
→ No bullish run to inflate RSI - just relentless weekly bleeding
→ RSI: 31.95
The RSI is lower now DESPITE a smaller percentage drop because:
1. COVID had a strong rally mixed in (Dec-Feb) that boosted average gains
2. Current decline is pure consistent downward pressure with weak bounces
3. The "average gain" in the RSI formula is drastically lower now
You're comparing a crash after a rally to a pure relentless grind. Completely different price structures = incomparable RSI readings.
Learn the actual math behind your indicators before making brain-dead comparisons. This is how people blow up accounts thinking "low RSI = automatic bounce."
Stop trading numbers. Start understanding what they actually measure.
Bitcoin is MORE oversold than during the COVID crash 🚨