Physicist and Space Cadet @MIT @UTAustin

Joined June 2009
373 Photos and videos
It was the Iranians that developed the game of chess, and you have similar games in China. So one nice thing about chess is that it teaches you to look several moves ahead. Chess and go are big in China, Iran, and Russia. Not a huge thing in the US. In US, the big games
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are blackjack and poker, and that tells you the difference in strategic culture. One thing about poker is that there is a ton of psychology, but there isn't a huge amount of deep strategy (i.e. if I do X, they will do Y, and I do X). In chess and go, you are playing the board.
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But poker versus chess explains a lot of what is going on here.
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So the thing about Trump is that he is really, really indecisive. He goes between signing a deal with Iran to bombing them in the course of a tweet. The thing about Trump is that he is running out of time and he just can't kick the can. Right now, we are keeping things steady
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The problem is that even with a ton of face saving, it's going to be obvious that Iran won. The alternative is no deal, in which Western economies just go off a cliff. The thing is that in either situation China will be in great shape.
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And that's what happens if you actually do strategy.
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So one thing that I am trying to point out to @Brad_Setser and @robin_j_brooks is that Europe, the G7, and the IMF are irrelevant, and no one cares what they think, because they are no longer at the "big boyz table."
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Now how the EU got itself into a situation of total irrelevance is fascinating, but that's the situation that we are at. So one reason I *want* the EU to get off its rear and and actually just *DO IT* is the faster the EU tries to do a trade war against China, the more quickly
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people will realize how irrelevant and incompetent the EU really is. It's also the case that the EU voters are not in a good mood.
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One other issue is that China is moving from a developing to a developed economy. This means that other economies are still at the fast growth stage. Vietnam, India, and Africa are growing faster than China, because they haven't yet moved all of the farmers to factories and
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services. The thing about Chinese exports, is that once you export a cheap EV to Pakistan, someone there can start a delivery service.
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One thing that strikes me about a lot of people that talk policy nonsense is that they are living in 1990. So you have all of this crazy talk about how China is wasting resources building railroads, housing, and bridges just like Japan. Meanwhile, the tech bros are spending
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hundreds of billions of dollars on AI data centers. Elon is making a trillion dollars, but the rest of us aren't.
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