Joined June 2007
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24 Oct 2022
The Global Guerillas Report Frameworks for understanding and anticipating events in warfare, politics, and technology. Substack (report): johnrobb.substack.com/ Patreon (report discord free form workspace): patreon.com/johnrobb

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Network nationalism is flaring up everywhere.
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We’re approaching agentic autonomy. Agentic autonomy is inherently dangerous. It allows you to manufacture talent (high-agency decision-making under uncertainty, long-horizon planning, tool use, adaptation, and execution) at near-zero marginal cost and near-infinite scale.
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The key item here is: "by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees" If this is applied to all AI companies, is this a backdoor approach to forcing tech companies to hire US nationals (giving them a massive edge in productivity)?
The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance. Access to all other Claude models is not affected. We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible. Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…
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It's also a good test case of China's fast follower open source approach. If China can't get access to the best frontier models, will they be able to follow?
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100 to 1 in months. Singularity compression.
Assuming Anthropic is able to restore Fable in the next few days, there's literally zero point doing any meaningful work until it is back. What can be done in 100 hours with Opus can be done in 1 with Fable. Hopefully this is figured out quickly.
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Boom
The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance. Access to all other Claude models is not affected. We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible. Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…
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Context: Keeping Anthropic in line Soft nationalization Preparing the ground for a US equity stake in all AI companies Out of context; Singularity (even a few months head start is everything)
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My senior project in astronautical engineering at the AF Academy was a design of a reusable single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) launch vehicle (it was a solid design, I got an A). Unfortunately, that was back in ’85 when the entire space program was nearly dead. Zoom forward forty years, and the centerpiece of the most valuable company on earth is a reusable SSTO launch vehicle. Timing is everything.
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Layers of social decision making Tribal Bureaucratic Market Network (AI is part of this) We need them all. All of them can be dangerous if they aren’t tamed. Mixing them creates more robust systems.
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Just a reminder, this model (TIMN - tribe, institution, market, network) was built by my friend, the brilliant David Ronfeldt.
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Everything needed for corporate built totalitarian state, is already available.
claude fable 5 now watches every city for new pool permits. the law makes every one of those owners buy a fence. so it mails them their finished backyard before the pool is even filled. this demo is real: the satellite still shows their old ring pool, the permit already replaces it with an in-ground build and claude caught it days after filing. here's the system you can sell to contractors: - monitors the city's pool permits in real time (free public data) - pulls the satellite photo of every permitted address - vision-checks the yard, rejects the bad leads - renders that backyard 3 ways: fence, rebuilt yard, night swim - prints the law on a postcard: "your pool can't pass inspection without a 48in barrier" - mails it to the owner with a QR per trade fence company, landscaper, lighting contractor, three retainers from one system and new permits drop every week. reply "POOL" RT and i'll send you a free guide so you can build this too (must be following so i can DM you)
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The elites of the West deprecated nationalism, claiming it was archaic. They replaced it with a globalism that turned nations into an empty containers bounded by 'enlightened' bureaucratic laws and rules. By doing that, they removed a stable form of tribal decision making from our social stack. Tribal decision making is an essential element of social decision making, it provides social cohesion, coherent group decision making, and internetwork trust. Without nationalism, countries became easy to corrupt (the amount of social and economic corruption we've experienced is staggering) Additionally, in the vacuum left by the fall of nationalism, a chaotic networked tribalism arose around every identity -- from race to ethnicity to religion to sexual preference. Now, as social order falls apart, we find that without nationalism, nobody is willing to risk their lives in the defense of hollow bureaucracy.
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The UK is swarming now. New report incoming. See the 2025 report: "Network Nationalism" for more johnrobb.substack.com/p/netw…

This video is one of the best empathy triggers I've seen. It's on par with the George Floyd video. johnrobb.substack.com/p/empa… Packetized media delivers empathy triggers straight to the information stream on your smartphone. This delivery mechanism slips past the resistance most people have to triggering an involuntary empathetic response that causes the viewer to feel what the victim feels. If the empathy trigger is framed by tribalism (as was George Floyds and this one), this empathetic response forges tribal kinship (fictive in the sense it doesn't require a blood relation) with the victim and turns the attackers into existential evil (they want to kill your relatives and you as well). If a large number of people tribalize in response to a trigger, it can spawn a network swarm...
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Orientation and execution are in short supply. Any other variants?
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Autonomy will fix the execution. Orientation will continue to be scarce.
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This video is one of the best empathy triggers I've seen. It's on par with the George Floyd video. johnrobb.substack.com/p/empa… Packetized media delivers empathy triggers straight to the information stream on your smartphone. This delivery mechanism slips past the resistance most people have to triggering an involuntary empathetic response that causes the viewer to feel what the victim feels. If the empathy trigger is framed by tribalism (as was George Floyds and this one), this empathetic response forges tribal kinship (fictive in the sense it doesn't require a blood relation) with the victim and turns the attackers into existential evil (they want to kill your relatives and you as well). If a large number of people tribalize in response to a trigger, it can spawn a network swarm...

In his final moments, Henry Nowak told police officers nine times “I can’t breathe” and four times that he had been stabbed. In response police officer dragged him across the gravel, handcuffed and read him his rights. It was the last thing Henry heard before he died.
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An old saying my dad (an ex-fighter pilot) used to routinely tell me and it probably saved my life a few times when I became a pilot. "there are old pilots, and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots" His chief pilot (30k plus hours) told him this after he pulled a stunt (he flew up a mountain, 50 ft over a ski lift, upside down).
The definition of coordination [📹 sabina_3o3] [📍 Red Rocks Amphitheatre, Morrison, Colorado]
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