Kinda fucked the public has no shot at owning the most iconic companeis of this cycle until they're absolutely gigantic.

JUST IN: SpaceX and xAI reportedly in advanced talks to merge

Anthropic is set to raise about $20 billion from venture capitalists and other investors. The fundraising deal, which is close to being finalised, would value the AI company at $350 billion.

Congrats to @pedroh96 and the Brex team on the acquisition. Major testament to what you and the team have built, and we have a lot of love for the leadership team at Capital One If you need any restaurant recommendations in McLean, I have many fond memories here

OPENAI IS FALLING APART IN REAL TIME I've watched companies implode for decades. This one has all the warning signs. OpenAI declared "Code Red" in December. Altman sent an internal memo telling employees to drop everything because Google's Gemini 3 is eating their lunch. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff publicly ditched ChatGPT for Gemini after using it for two hours. ChatGPT traffic fell in November. Second month-over-month decline of 2025. Meanwhile Gemini jumped to 650 million monthly active users. The company that was supposed to build AGI can't keep its chatbot competitive. But the real story is the money... OpenAI lost $12 BILLION in a single quarter according to Microsoft's own fiscal disclosures. Deutsche Bank estimates $143 billion in cumulative negative cash flow before the company turns profitable. Their analysts put it bluntly: "No startup in history has operated with losses on anything approaching this scale." They're burning $15 million per day on Sora alone. $5 billion annually to generate copyright-infringing memes. Even Sora's lead engineer admitted the "economics are currently completely unsustainable." Here's the big math problem nobody wants to discuss: It's going to cost 5x the energy and money to make these models 2x better. The low-hanging fruit is gone. Every incremental improvement now requires exponentially more compute, more data centers, more power. Reports suggest OpenAI's large training runs in 2025 failed to produce models better than prior versions. GPT-5 launched to widespread disappointment. Users called it "underwhelming" and "horrible." OpenAI had to restore GPT-4o within 24 hours because users preferred the old model. Altman had promised GPT-5 would make GPT-4 feel "mildly embarrassing." Instead, users complained it was worse at basic math and geography. They've released GPT-5.1, GPT-5.2 since. Same complaints each time: too corporate, too safe, robotic, boring. The talent exodus makes this even worse: CTO Mira Murati. Gone. Chief Research Officer Bob McGrew. Gone. Chief Scientist Ilya Sutskever. Gone. President Greg Brockman. Gone. Half the AI safety team departed. Multiple executives reportedly cited "psychological abuse" under Altman's leadership. And now Elon Musk is suing for up to $134 billion. A federal judge just ruled the case goes to jury trial in April. There's "plenty of evidence" that OpenAI's leaders promised to maintain the nonprofit structure that Musk funded. Musk provided $38 million in early funding based on those assurances. Now he wants his share of the $500 billion valuation. OpenAI called it "harassment." But the judge disagreed. Here's what I think happens next: The AI hype cycle is peaking. The diminishing returns are becoming impossible to hide. Competitors are catching up. The lawsuits are piling up. OpenAI needs to generate $200 billion in annual revenue by 2030 to justify their projections. That's 15x growth in five years while costs keep exploding. Even Sam Altman admitted investors are "overexcited" about AI. His exact words: "Someone is going to lose a phenomenal amount of money." If I were running an AI startup with good traction right now, I'd be looking for an exit. Sell into the hype before the music stops. My positioning: I'm not touching OpenAI-adjacent plays at these valuations. The risk profile is astronomical. If you're exposed to the Magnificent 7 through AI infrastructure bets, consider trimming. The gap between promised revolution and delivered reality has never been wider. The smart money is rotating into sectors where valuations actually reflect fundamentals. Small and mid-caps are trading near decade lows relative to Big Tech while earnings growth is only marginally lower. Markets can price risk. But they can't price chaos. And OpenAI is chaos dressed up in a $500 billion valuation.

California started with the Gold Rush and might end with the Golden Exit. it has been underreported how much wealth has left CA because of the asset seizure tax being proposed. a private poll was conducted amongst affected individuals a few days ago and 80-90% surveyed said they have already left CA in 2025 or will leave in 2026 if the ballot measure looks likely to pass. $2-2.5T of assets gone, representing about $20B of annual revenue for the state government. and likely hundreds of thousands of jobs now at risk. less reported is the bigger exodus underway from folks who are NOT directly affected but worry (as they should) that this law will quickly transition from billionaires to everyone else... the initiative actually gives CA legislators the right to take anyone's post-tax assets anytime in the future based on a majority vote. this isn't about billionaires. it's a new "tax system" that simply destroys private property rights in America. all private property is now public property. even after paying your taxes, it's not legally your property anymore. it's the government's, you're just borrowing it. legislators will decide what you get to keep and temporarily use each year. countless founders, CEOs, and other business leaders are actively looking to move their companies out of state. not just tech, not just AI, not just billionaires, but the core engine of California's prosperity since 1847 is unraveling. and here is how this initiative risks unraveling America: - ~10 states have explicit or implicit prohibitions against an asset seizure tax... - individuals affected in CA (and other states trying to do the same) will move to these states that endow private property rights. - CA already has a $20-30B annual budget deficit, an unfunded ~$1T pension liability for public employees/unions, and $500B of debt outstanding. the state can not afford to borrow much more and will launch more asset seizures to meet its obligations. - asset seizures will first transition to "millionaires" and eventually to the entire middle class as more asset seizures drive more people to leave the state. - the deficit, debt, and job loss will spiral. the Golden Exit. - no US state has ever declared bankruptcy. in addition to CA, dozens of other states face similar fiscal crises - legislators promised future benefits that can't be paid or theft and waste have been allowed to run rampant and unabated for years. - struggling states will eventually request federal government assistance, as they always have in times of fiscal crisis, effectively "federalizing state debt". - states not in crisis will declare "enough is enough", individuals in those states will refuse to pay their federal taxes (why pay for other people's mistakes?), some states may try to secede from the Union, and a constitutional and civil crisis will erupt. this may seem far-fetched but it is the obvious domino effect of selectively deleting private property rights for some people in some states. i am not a billionaire and this CA bill does not affect me, but i care about the country and the state of CA. i want both to thrive. it's obvious that there are people in CA in desperate need of support and assistance, and inequities may exist that need to be rectified, but eliminating private property rights is the wrong path for everyone. a few alternatives to consider first: 1) with a $350B annual budget, CA can cut programs that result in theft and little-to-no benefit for citizens. $50B per year is likely recoverable. 2) if more taxes are needed, tax loans against unrealized capital gains (very few objections will arise), eliminate tax-free rollover of certain appreciated assets (real estate industry will fight), create a step up in basis on inheritance (some will fight but most will support). likely $10Bs of incremental revenue can be realized. 3) restructure all public retirement programs from Defined Benefit to Defined Contribution. eliminating the unfunded retirement liabilities ($1T ) will be the release valve on the future the state so desperately needs. we must address what ails us without dividing and destroying our state, our nation, our home. ignore the rhetoric, these are the facts.

Joint Statement: Apple and Google have entered into a multi-year collaboration under which the next generation of Apple Foundation Models will be based on Google's Gemini models and cloud technology. These models will help power future Apple Intelligence features, including a more personalized Siri coming this year. After careful evaluation, Apple determined that Google's Al technology provides the most capable foundation for Apple Foundation Models and is excited about the innovative new experiences it will unlock for Apple users. Apple Intelligence will continue to run on Apple devices and Private Cloud Compute, while maintaining Apple's industry-leading privacy standards.