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Jon Brooks @jonbrooks
Joined August 2015
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Millions of homes are quietly becoming rentals. Not because investors want them… But because owners can’t sell. So they rent instead. This wave of “accidental landlords” is flooding the rental market with supply.
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The rental market just flipped. 2021–2022: landlords had the power. 2025: tenants are renegotiating leases. Vacancy rates jumped from ~6% → as high as 10–13%. The era of easy rent increases is over. Tenants now have leverage.
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Whoever sells the tickets to FIFA World Cup really messed up. Empty seats in the middle of the stadium everywhere during one of the biggest matches….
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Real world example from a landlord: A property renting for $2,200/month for years… Just renewed at $1,950. That’s an 11% rent drop in one year. Multiply that across thousands of homes.
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Rents exploded nearly 30% during the pandemic. Now the correction has begun. National rents are already down 3–6% from peak. The problem? Most people still think rents only go up.
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Housing payments have exploded. Median payment: 2020 → $1,500 Today → $2,800 That’s a 90% increase in five years. Wages didn’t rise 90%. That’s the affordability crisis.
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One statistic should scare real estate investors: 33% of homes purchased from 2020–2023 were claimed as primary residences but turned into rentals. Occupancy fraud was rampant during the boom. That inventory is now hitting the rental market.
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Example of oversupply: Jacksonville alone added: • 7,600 apartment units in 12 months • 11,000 more under construction Developers assumed migration would continue forever. It didn’t.
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Tenants are starting to negotiate. They literally email landlords saying: “Zillow shows cheaper homes nearby. Lower my rent or I’m moving.” And landlords are increasingly saying yes.
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It’s already worse than 2008–2009 in some housing metrics… …and almost no one is talking about it. Existing home sales have collapsed 35% from the peak -- a technical demand crash. And this is happening before unemployment rises, before forced selling, before real distress. The pressure is quietly building beneath the surface. The real pain hasn’t even started yet.
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"housing shortage"
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The media keeps saying: “Florida population is still growing.” Technically true. But the IMPORTANT migration — domestic buyers with equity and high incomes — collapsed. That’s the group that drove: bidding wars luxury demand investor activity price appreciation And they slowed dramatically.
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The Florida condo market is teaching a brutal lesson: Monthly payment matters more than purchase price. People can survive: a flat home value They can’t survive: insurance doubling $2,000 HOA fees six-figure assessments financing disappearing
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When builders offer “free rate buydowns”… that’s not generosity. That’s inventory stress.
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Your 3% mortgage became a financial prison. That’s why inventory still feels weirdly low despite affordability collapsing.
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Rates going from 3% to 6.5%... You get the worst demand in decades... that's all it took. 3.5%.
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Builders are quietly subsidizing mortgages because the market can’t support the payment anymore. Lennar margins collapsed. Builder incentives exploded. New homes are now often CHEAPER to finance than existing homes. That’s a massive problem for resale sellers.
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5,000 Florida condos reportedly can’t get conventional financing anymore. That creates a brutal doom loop: No financing → fewer buyers → lower comps → more buildings flagged → even fewer buyers. This is bigger than people realize. We had several of these in Jacksonville, and the sellers often got stuck in a high fee association
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Florida now has 4 of the 5 largest metro home price declines in America: Punta Gorda -11.9% Cape Coral -9.2% Sarasota -7.5% Naples -6.0% But nationally people still think: “Florida housing is booming.”
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The weirdest part of this housing market: People locked into 3% mortgages can’t afford to move… even if they WANT to. This is a housing market frozen in place.
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