Editor, US Business Cycle Risk Report, CapitalSpectator.com, author (Quantitative Investment Portfolio Analytics In R), dir of analytics:The Milwaukee Co
Joined June 2009
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The new US-Iran peace deal may take some of the pressure off for a Fed rate hike, but the case for rate cuts is still premature. Fed funds futures are pricing in a path that continues to anticipate keeping policy steady for the next several FOMC meetings: cmegroup.com/markets/interes…
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Jun 12
Running low... still: “Soon enough, we’ll run out of shock absorbers,” said Antoine Halff, a co-founder of the research firm Kayrros and a former chief oil analyst at the International Energy Agency: nytimes.com/2026/06/12/busin…
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Jun 11
The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 11 JUN 2026
Performance Pulse: Global Markets & Portfolio Strategy Benchmarks: etfps.substack.com/p/the-etf…
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Jun 10
As expected, US consumer inflation continued to accelerate, rising 4.2% y-o-y at the headline level. The news adds to pressure on the Fed to tighten policy. Core CPI, a more reliable measure of the trend, is much lower, but here too the 1yr trend ticked higher to a 2.9% pace.
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Jun 10
Resilient, Not Recessionary: The US Economy Refuses to Crack: tmcresearch.com/p/resilient-…
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Jun 9
Middle-East conflict is heating up, again, as Israel renewed its military assault in Lebanon shorturl.at/s8sFJ but the oil market isn't worried, based on the US crude benchmark, which is trading below $90 a barrel:
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Jun 9
Diverging expectations, inflation edition: the Treasury market's implied inflation outlook is still trending down, via 5yr expectations, but...
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Jun 9
Consumer inflation expectations are rising, via the Cleveland Fed's estimates: clevelandfed.org/indicators-…
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Jun 9
Safe Havens No More? Treasuries Sink While Riskier Debt Rallies: capitalspectator.com/safe-ha…
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Jun 8
The S&P 500 earnings party is expected to continue in Q2, largely due to (you guessed it) tech, according to FactSet: shorturl.at/FrNDn
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