It is easy to pick on lack of hard-tech because it's so glaring.
But consequences of abundant intelligence will make freedom to innovate, to build business, to take things to market and move money easily, for the need for infra (whether roads or judges) - much much more important - in ways that are not glaring right now.
Consider an analog:
- Before invention of motorized transport - human movement over land was limited by speed and capacity of horses/bullocks.
- That meant some parity across nations in moving people/goods. horses just needed dirt tracks. everyone had dirt tracks (except rain-forests).
- Once motorized transport came in - we suddenly needed asphalt and rails. cross country highways.
These were largely public works. Those who built them were able to take true advantage of motorized transport.
Something similar will happen with AI
- Earlier the bottleneck in 'production' of many things was the intelligence and human time required to build it.
A business plan, designers/architects, hiring, putting an office/factory together, coding/executing, marketing etc. etc.
- What super-abundant intelligence will do is compress some of these steps to near zero. (and we haven't even entered the era of abundant robots).
- When some stages get compressed - the bottleneck will shift to remaining stages.
The overhead of GST/MCA filings, commuting, tax audits etc may have been 1/10th of an earlier execution path length. As path length shorten - maybe they become 1/5th. (see Amdahl's Law)
Countries where regulatory burdens are minimal and who can provide smooth infrastructure businesses need, will prosper - as new products/services are launched with breathtaking speed.
Countries who are stuck in bureaucratic past, with poor infrastructure - will find that their economic gap from more business friendly countries - is increasing. Because their overheads are becoming even more of a bottleneck than before.
All this is not visible and in the news. What is in the news is the LLM, the GPU. These are the Steam Engine, the Mercedes, the Ford of our era.
But what will matter equally eventually, or perhaps even more, is the Rail and the Asphalt.
unfort. all this talk of sovereignity will lead GoI in the wrong direction.
far more important problem is how one establishes conditions for innovation. how one gets one's own Musk over time.
after all we had sovereign tech even in 70s - 'Ambassador' cars for example.