🇨🇴"Most votes from Bogotá" has Cepeda at 56%, Abelardo at 38%. The market thinks the capital stays red. I'm fading it. Here's my thesis 🧵 1. Abelardo only lost Bogotá by 3.96% in round one (41.67 vs 37.71). In a city that gave Petro 90% of its voting stations in 2022, that's not a left wing fortress anymore. 2. The eliminated vote breaks right. Valencia (9%), Fajardo (6.3%) and the center-right that voted in round one didn't vote for the left. In the runoff, most of that consolidates behind Abelardo and it's concentrated in Bogotá's middle class. 3. National momentum is all Abelardo. He's up ~8 points nationally and climbing. 38% on Abelardo for Bogotá is too cheap for a candidate winning the country. At these odds, Abelardo to win Bogotá pays 163% if it hits. I'm positioned. Not financial advice.