Mid-career people are sitting on rare leverage right now
Stanford's Digital Economy Lab paper tracked early-career workers since ChatGPT launched. Workers aged 22-25 in the most AI-exposed jobs saw a 13% relative drop in employment vs. peers in less-exposed roles.
The jobs disappearing fastest are the ones where juniors used to learn the ropes by doing the boring stuff, and AI now does the boring stuff.
So what happens to mid-career people in 5-7 years?
If companies stop hiring juniors at the same rate, the pipeline of people ready to step into senior roles dries up.
IBM noticed and is tripling entry-level hires in 2026, not generosity, math. Slashing juniors saves money now and creates an expensive talent shortage later.
Ofc most companies don't do that. Which means anyone currently in the 3-8 year experience range is in a structurally rare position!
That window won't stay open forever, but right now it's the most leverage you'll have in your career to negotiate scope, comp, and the kind of work you actually want.