Investor | Big, Infrequent, Asymmetric bets! Special Situations Free detailed research into Indian stock market đź“© maniacmarkets.substack.com/

Joined June 2013
358 Photos and videos
youtube.com/watch?v=ZaA4cMnt… The Company Behind AI, Data Centers & Green Energy | Bhagyanagar India Ltd Must watch to understand more about the business. #bhagyanagar #demerger #specialsituation
Bhagyanagar India: Capacity expansion from 35K MT to 45k MT Spinning off copper business into a new entity with growth plans in parent entity( Real estate) business as well ROIC improving to 20% on a sustainable basis Disc : holding from 165 levels, continue to hold. No fresh reco. #demerger
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And the first trillionaire ladies and gentleman 👏
> you’ll never start a rocket company > you’ll never build your own engines > you’ll never be able to use off-the-shelf parts > you’ll never survive three launch failures > you’ll never reach orbit > you’ll never win NASA’s trust > you’ll never launch cargo to the ISS > you’ll never compete with Boeing > you’ll never compete with Lockheed > you’ll never make rockets reusable > you’ll never land a rocket vertically > you’ll never land one on a drone ship > you’ll never reuse a booster > you’ll never fly the same booster 10 times > you’ll never fly the same booster 20 times > you’ll never fly the same booster 30 times > you’ll never recover and reuse the fairing > you’ll never lower launch costs > you’ll never launch every month > you’ll never launch every week > you’ll never launch multiple times a week > you’ll never carry astronauts > you’ll never replace Roscosmos > you’ll never fly civilians to orbit > you’ll never manufacture satellites at scale > you’ll never build the biggest constellation ever > you’ll never make satellite internet work > you’ll never make satellite internet fast > you’ll never make satellite internet affordable > you’ll never serve rural customers > you’ll never serve aircraft and ships > you’ll never build a methane rocket engine > you’ll never make full-flow staged combustion work > you’ll never build the most powerful rocket ever > you’ll never build a rocket bigger than Saturn V > you’ll never build it out of stainless steel > you’ll never launch Starship > you’ll never separate Super Heavy and Starship > you’ll never relight Raptor in space > you’ll never bring Super Heavy back > you’ll never catch a booster with Mechazilla tower arms > you’ll never launch 85% of mass to orbit worldwide > you’ll never change the economics of space > you’ll never force the entire industry to copy you > you’ll never win > you’ll never IPO   Congratulations to @elonmusk and the SpaceX team. You did what countless people said was impossible, and you did it time and time again.   Today is your day. You deserve this. May it be a glorious one.
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#SpecialSituation #Indoborax Promoter change From capital misallocation to prudent deployment, a tale captured in two images Image 1: Cash generated in the business used for buying a residential property worth 42 crores instead of growing the business or returning the cash to shareholders while company had 70 cr Mcap
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They have guided for 250 cr topline in FY27 with future growth in high double digits along with some margin expansion, forward integration, new chemistry/products, execution is yet to be seen. An interesting company to track with new energy, experienced team and prudent capital allocation at play.
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Disc: One can go through latest concall/ PPT to have more info. Just sharing what I find interesting in Special sits, no recommendation to buy or sell. Always do your due diligence.
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Kashish Shambhwani retweeted
NVIDIA IS BUYING ITS OWN CHIPS AND CALLING IT REVENUE And your retirement account is secretly holding the bag. This scheme is literally straight out of the Enron playbook... In January 2026, a special purpose vehicle called Valor Compute Infrastructure was created with one purpose: Buy Nvidia's chips so Nvidia could book the sale as revenue. Valor raised $5.4 billion and purchased over 100,000 of Nvidia's GB200 GPUs. But $1.9 billion of that money came FROM Nvidia itself. Nvidia invested $1.9 billion into the shell company, then sold that same shell company $5.4 billion worth of its own chips and booked every dollar as revenue. It's the Girl Scout whose dad bought all the cookies and then she wins the sales contest because Dad was the customer. Except this Girl Scout is a trillion-dollar company and the cookie sale is $5.4 billion. But it gets MUCH worse: The remaining $3.5 billion in financing came from Apollo Global Management. Apollo structured the debt, packaged it into securities, and then sold those securities to Athene. And guess who Athene is? Apollo's OWN insurance subsidiary. The one that sells fixed annuities to American retirees as safe, conservative retirement products. Follow the chain: Nvidia funds a shell company with $1.9 billion. The shell company buys $5.4 billion in Nvidia chips. Apollo finances the remaining $3.5 billion. Apollo sells the debt to its own insurance arm. That insurance arm packages it into annuity products and sells them to retirees who think they're buying something safe. The retirees have no idea that their retirement savings are now backed by 100,000 computer chips sitting in some data center that will be worth pennies on the dollar in three years. Now look at what's happening inside Athene: $74.2 billion in US reserves but $217 billion in assets have been shifted to a Bermuda-based captive insurer, outside normal US regulatory oversight. $103 billion of that portfolio (roughly 35%) is classified as Level 3 assets. That means there is no observable market price. These assets are valued by internal models, not by actual markets. And sitting on top of all those unpriced assets? 16.6x leverage. If you're getting flashbacks to 2008, you should be. Back then it was mortgages bundled into securities that nobody understood, sold to investors who had no idea what they were holding, rated as safe by agencies that never looked under the hood. Today it's GPU-backed securities. Computer chips bundled into structured credit instruments, routed through an offshore insurance subsidiary, and sold to you as a retirement product. The collateral is 100,000 GPUs leased to a single customer through an xAI subsidiary. If xAI stops making lease payments for any reason - financial distress, a pivot in strategy, anything - the entire structure unravels. And Nvidia releases new architectures every year, so each generation delivers dramatically more compute per watt. A 5 year lease on technology that's obsolete in 2 years creates a mismatch that should terrify every annuity holder in America. Every single step in this chain is technically legal. The SPV is legal, the lease is legal, Nvidia's equity stake is legal, the securitization is legal, and the Bermuda transfer is legal. But legality and legitimacy are not the same thing. I've seen every trick Wall Street has ever pulled in my 45 years of doing this. And what I'm looking at right now is a pipeline that takes AI infrastructure risk, launders it through 8 layers of financial engineering, and deposits it in the retirement accounts of Americans who never agreed to fund Elon Musk's data centers. In 2008 it was mortgage-backed securities. In 2026 it's GPU-backed securities. Different asset. Same greed. With the same ending.
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Kashish Shambhwani retweeted
George Soros taught Ron Baron one lesson that made him $20 billion "if you have identified and done the work on a business that can grow tremendously - you can't own enough of the greatest idea you've ever had" Baron put $400 million into Tesla and made $7 billion - then put $2 billion into SpaceX and made $13 billion - 54% compounded per year for 9 years he just placed a $1 billion order at the SpaceX IPO - "I'm 83 years old - I can't imagine ever selling a single share in my lifetime" bookmark and watch it today ↓
Stanley Druckenmiller averaged 30% a year for 30 years without a single losing year Paul Tudor Jones asked him on stage what made him different from everyone else - his answer: size "I put 350% long into one bond trade - 200 to 300% of my fund into a single currency - put all your eggs in one basket and watch the basket carefully" "I've never used a stop loss in 40 years - I exit when the reason I bought changes, not when the price is down" "the world changed on 9/11, the world changed when the wall came down, the world changed election night - these moments set in place two to four-year trends you can play" bookmark and watch it today ↓
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Kashish Shambhwani retweeted
Persistent discounts to intrinsic value are votes on management, not market inefficiencies.
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#amicforging New capacity(Phase-1) coming live in next 15 days Phase-2 funding is already secured and will add significantly to the capabilities and supply to niche industries Marquee name in pref allotment and stock is coming out of 2 years of consolidation. *Expecting earnings to go up by 5x here* Interesting company to study.
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#amicforging New capacity(Phase-1) coming live in next 15 days Phase-2 funding is already secured and will add significantly to the capabilities and supply to niche industries Marquee name in pref allotment and stock is coming out of 2 years of consolidation. *Expecting earnings to go up by 5x here* Interesting company to study.
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#SKMegg CAPEX of almost 400cr for backward integration which should significantly boost margins and make business more resilient Promoter bought 17cr worth of shares over last one year Did maiden concall last week Connect the dots :) Disc: Invested from lower levels. Cyclical business, DYOD and understand the inherent risks in the business.
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When market values a company like #Axiscades at 100x P/E, it`s baking in flawless management execution and aggressive growth delivery. As an investor you expect quarterly ramp up especially when targets are so big. Income deferment, one-off costs will change nothing at the company level but your XIRR would definitely take a hit One needs to mindful to not just go by the guidance and have enough MOS before buying or trailing the position. #Notetoself #investing
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Kashish Shambhwani retweeted
US markets beyond Semi's and Energy sector. Massive divergence
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Curious how #Manindustries acquired NPC - A profit making, debt free company at 1.5x EV/EBITDA vs listed Saudi players at 7x EBITDA? Anyone tracking the company?
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