Searching for positive expected value in financial markets & others. 23 years old. Special situations.
Joined April 2023
- Tweets 1,003
- Following 1,353
- Followers 1,937
- Likes 1,437
72 Photos and videos
Pinned Tweet
Jun 12
New article out now!
Since my initial coverage:
- Damages figure has been uplifted 2x (26x MC)
- BF filed counter memorial = locked into case
- Management bought even more stock (~16%)
- Assets worth 30% of MC were divested
Yet the price is the exact same as before...
$SRR.ax
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Jun 12
New article out now!
Since my initial coverage:
- Damages figure has been uplifted 2x (26x MC)
- BF filed counter memorial = locked into case
- Management bought even more stock (~16%)
- Assets worth 30% of MC were divested
Yet the price is the exact same as before...
$SRR.ax
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Jun 12
Ofc like always there's much more to the story. You can read about it here:
kingfishcapital.substack.com…
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Apr 22
Aghhhhh $CAR, was looking at short dated puts for small size yesterday as a punt in the PA. Rtn’d some insane multiple day of, I don’t even wanna know what I’d be up rn.
Need to start acting with WAY more conviction and stop sitting on the sidelines so much.
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Apr 14
This was all placed manually too, bot will be taking over soon, thank you to those that sent me the inbounds for devs. Ppl aren't going to understand what I'm referring to and that's fine, this is more so when the edge is gone I can refer back to this post and say look I wasn't lying!
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Mar 10
Looking to sign up to a few CFD brokers for some catalyst stuff I'm doing. If anyone has recommendations or affiliate links it would be greatly appreciated!
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Mar 5
Risk adjusted IRR's in the thousands, ability to multiply your total return using multiple brokers, earning real cash essentially risk free ($300 ) all while only having to put up tiny amounts of capital for short periods of time (1-2 weeks).
New piece out.
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Mar 5
Well, $PNC.ax ( 100%) are indeed going to hit the NPAT goal (sorry exceed), STAM did indeed become a board member and the price was indeed wrong.
9 Apr 2025
PNC.ax - price is wrong.
Yes recession is bad for the stock however, we know a family office had to sell indiscriminately due to liquidity issues (as per the ann, its not amiss to assume this could still be happening) management are super incentivised to hit the STI. Employee exp is too high and easily cut imo (if it came to it).
From a game theory perspective (incentives) I do think its ev at this price and thats how I’ve always thought about buying decisions. However, I note that if management have to cut guidance and it looks like they won’t hit the needed results for the STI, it might become a sell (price dependent)
Low level overview so DYOR.
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Mar 5
I don't declare such things often (ever)!
x.com/kingfishcap/status/189…
4 Mar 2025
I think I might have to declare $PNC.ax my pick of the year with this sell off.
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Mar 5
The thesis was very simple. Business model is easy to understand, management went into cost savings mode with STAM as major holder, gave themselves some STI and LTI to hit quite a big NPAT number but you could see from the outside how it was doable, due to biz model all cost savings go straight to the bottom line with underlying earnings unaffected, so underlying biz doesn't have to grow much to hit goal. Still ~5x P/E.
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Mar 2
If you hold $HUM.ax in IBKR and haven't already submitted your vote, open up a support ticket and copy paste what is written below. You must submit this 4 days prior to March 13th has IBKR requires, so submit ASAP.
Feb 26
$HUM.ax - New piece on the activist situation @puppyeh1 is leading.
I think we are slightly odds on to win, getting a better up/down gain/loss split due to the recent sell off. I also believe that there are many aspects to the situation which lend to a better break price then many think.
I am long.
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Mar 2
1. The meeting date - March 13th, 2026
2. AGM or EGM - EGM
3. ISIN - AU0000121337
4. The quantity of shares to vote - (enter exact number here)
5. Voting direction (FOR/AGAINST) for EACH resolution - FOR ALL
6. Voting is final and will be no further change - confirmed
7. Client will hold the stocks until the meeting date - (please confirm)
8. In the event the company extended the meeting date, client will hold the stock until the new extended meeting date, with IB not sending any further updates to clients - (please confirm)
9. Proxy Voting charge of AUD 200 - (please confirm)
10. Confirm the account number holding the shares - (please confirm)
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Feb 27
I will summarise below what has transpired today regarding $HUM.ax
The takeover panel has said:
- Whilst Chairman, Andrew Abercrombie took control of the Credit Corp (CC) bid, at least initially
Feb 26
$HUM.ax - New piece on the activist situation @puppyeh1 is leading.
I think we are slightly odds on to win, getting a better up/down gain/loss split due to the recent sell off. I also believe that there are many aspects to the situation which lend to a better break price then many think.
I am long.
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Feb 27
Seemingly bullied the other directors to remove a resolution that if unsuccessful, would stop his ability to squeeze out remaining holders.
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Feb 27
And most importantly, HUM is forced to engage (in an independent manner) with the $CCP.ax bid.
The Takeovers Panel has essentially put $HUM.ax in the naughty corner.
While it looks like AA can vote that extra 3% he acquired (?) under dubious circumstances, the bid by CC will be taken seriously. CC's bid price is still decently cheap and I do not think they will walk noting the synergies also.
5% position for me @ 66c.
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