All my RBA interest rate forecasts February 2020 to August 2023 . linkedin.com/pulse/rba-comme…

Labor will expand an existing capital gains tax concession for small businesses and introduce a new concession for startups. The 50 per cent active asset reduction will be extended to all businesses with a turnover up to $10 million per year, up from the existing threshold of $2 million. A potential 30 per cent minimum tax on discretionary testamentary trusts will be scrapped, and the government will consult on the interaction of capital gains tax reforms and incentives for investment in early-stage and start-up businesses. #auspol

I guess it's important to say what the boss wants in the job interview and then do the right thing. Warsh is now more invested than Powell and Cook that Cook wins her case against Trump.

Over 2.5 months after the end of the quarter $NZD *NZ 1Q GDP RISES 0.8% Q/Q; EST. 0.8% *NZ 1Q GDP RISES 1.5% Y/Y; EST. 1.0% What do they do this by mail in ? 😀

You heard it here first. "There was also one set of rate projections missing from the central bank’s so-called “dot plot,” which Warsh later explained were his own." #Fed #FOMC

PBOC preparing the groundwork for a bit more internationalisation of the yuan. No chance of a free float but the official launch of the Foreign and International Monetary Authorities Renminbi Repo Facility (FIMA RMB Repo) is a step in the right direction. #china

Given new Fed Chair Warsh's apparent opposition to Fed forward guidance I'd be surprised if he gave us a dot plot at tonight's #FOMC but we will see.

N12 News: release full list of the 12 key clauses of the MOU between the US and Iran: • Iran agrees not to develop or acquire nuclear weapons • US and Iran agree to halt hostilities across the region, including in Lebanon • Iran to guarantee free and safe commercial shipping through the strait of hormuz for 60 days • US to release frozen Iranian assets once the agreement takes effect • US to grant temporary sanctions waivers allowing Iran to export oil during negotiations • Iran to maintain its current nuclear program while talks continue • both sides to address Iran's enriched uranium stockpile in future negotiations • US to avoid new sanctions and major military buildups in the region during talks • 60 days of negotiations planned to reach a final agreement • Oman and gulf states to participate in talks on maritime security and shipping arrangements • final deal could see the US withdraw its forces within 30 days • final deal could result in the lifting of all US sanctions on Iran • proposed final agreement includes a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran • potential deal would represent one of the most significant US–Iran diplomatic breakthroughs in decades

Dovish reaction to the RBA statement with those economists who have called for an end to the RBA rate hiking cycle confirming their views. Markets seem focused on the “signs that growth in consumer spending is slowing as expected and momentum in the housing market has shifted, with housing prices falling in some capital cities”. Bond futs on their highs and AUD at its lows. Receiving flows in late 2026/early 2027 OIS with odds down to 58% for a hike by December. But still the #RBA presser to come where I'm sure they will focus on the Budget, yaya, yada, neg gearing and CGT, yada yada. #auspol

*BOJ RAISES OVERNIGHT CALL RATE TO 1.00% *BOJ: AMOUNT OF MONTHLY JGB BUYS ABOUT 2T YEN FROM APRIL 2027

The RBA pretty much pauses any tightening (or easing) cycle when it forecasts core inflation at the mid-point of its 2 %to 3% target. At the May meeting the RBA forecast trimmed mean inflation to remain above 3 per cent until mid-2027, before easing to 2.5 per cent by early 2028. This doesn’t mean we have reached the end of the tightening cycle, but it explains why the market never priced a greater than 50% chance of a June rate hike. Given the budget has seemed to have had a negative impact on house prices most analysts have removed a hike out of their forecasts given the tax changes are akin to a 25bps hike. With the RBA on pause today swaps price a 70% chance of a hike by December which I think is correct. Over the coming month weak Labour force data will reduce the odds of a hike while stronger data will tend to increase the odds.

Probably a good day for the BOJ to intervene on behalf of the MOF to buy $JPY after the BOJ hikes rates today. Mainly because the next BOJ hike is not forecast until Jan 2027 and there is a chance the board will lean dovish after this meeting with a new reflationist board member joining in July.

*IRAN'S GHARIBABADI SAYS FINALIZED TEXT OF MOU REACHED

*PAKISTAN SAYS US-IRAN DEAL TO BE SIGNED JUNE 19 IN SWITZERLAND

From the vault Feb5. The next ECB move will be up. Last night the ECB hiked rates for the first time since Sep 2023. 🎯

$SPCX IPO priced at USD135/share, raising USD75bn, the largest IPO in history. The offering was reportedly more than four times oversubscribed, with multiple insto investors placing orders of USD10bn or more. On crypto exchange Hyperliquid the synthetic SPCX has been trading since May 17. The high was $230 and the low $155. Price is currently at $172 vs the $135 IPO price which implies a 27% gain if the stock opens there tonight.

I see high speed trains are back on the agenda in Australia. Let me guess the incumbent govt is behind in the polls? #auspol

Tt's easier to just watch the last minute of #NBA basketball

Westpac Consumer Sentiment back to the one of the weakest in 50 years. The Budget was not very well received #auspol