CTO @ Cryptocurrency.Market & Co-Creator of the TaiFu™ 30 Cryptocurrency Market Index at TaiFuIndexes.com. Not financial advice.
Joined November 2010
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I do not understand Schiff’s decade long jihad against Bitcoin since zero. Bitcoin started from nothing, a decade later is backed by the largest institutions, trading on global stock markets (not just US) and backed by the leading Presidential candidate is vindication we’re right
5 Aug 2024
Today's #crypto crash wasn't big enough to shake the confidence of ETF investors. However, their resolve will be tested soon. Capitulation is needed to from a short-term bottom. #Bitcoin breaking below $38K should do the trick. At that price all #BitcoinETFs will hit new lows.
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What am I doing in the crypto bull market? Mostly nothing. I invested nearly all my AMMO with just a little left in case we fell to $10K like so many believed. The bottom was in Dec ‘22 at $16K, but so many were bearish through most of ‘23. The bears have all been vanquished!
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Is it too late to buy? Yes and no. No, it’s not too late because it’s going higher. Yes it’s too late because we’re likely already higher than the bottom of the next bear market. Anything you buy now and don’t sell will likely be a loser in the next bear market.
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As for the market, there's not much for us to do. We switched from bearish to neutral to bullish last year, after the regional bank failures in the US. I was pretty much fully invested by Q2 of last year. We are BULLISH now, which means we're looking for reasons to SELL.
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My view switched from neutral to bullish after the regional bank failures last March. The bear market ended last Nov and we’ve been trading sideways since.
I believe the bull market has started. It means, I start looking for reasons to SELL coins I bought in the past year.
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I still have some AMMO, but most of it has been deployed. I will no longer be looking to buy, unless there is a specific reason.
This is the opposite of many investors. They either stay out, look to sell, short, etc. Even as recently as Aug and Sept, many were still bearish when
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A year later, we can now say with some confidence, the bottom was a year ago, Nov 21st 2021, at $15,500. That was the end of the bear market. We were DCA’ing in small amounts before, then heavily at the beginning of the year.
Since people like to call bottoms and tops (myself included), I will GUESS (purely speculative) it’s >$10K. But I doubt it stays there long enough to buy few, if any coins <$11K unless you have standing limit orders on exchanges. We learned from FTX how risky that is.
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