Updates and analysis on the Levant and Geopolitics as a whole. All opinions are my own, RT and Quote Tweets do not mean endorsement

Joined March 2024
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My geopolitical predictions and analysis for 2026: 1. 110 years after Sykes-Picot we are facing a new project called the United Abrahamic States with its goal of partitioning existing countries based on sectarian and ethnic lines. The project is based on Israeli hegemony through occupation of land and natural resources. 2. Uprisings in Syria that will do more then spark annexation talks, a alawite state on the coast a durzi state in the south and a Kurdish state in the north. The momentum of annexation will spread to other countries forcing unusual alliances to form. 3. A youth movement in the Middle East. Leadership changes in Bahrain and Jordan. Hussein ibn Abdullah will be crowned king. Turkey will have a new president. 4. The rivalry between the UAE and Saudi Arabia will reach Saudi Arabia, MBS will face his biggest challenges internally after the death of Salman, and we may see a Ritz Carlton 2.0 5. 3 governments in Yemen 6. Attempts at destabilizing the regime in Egypt with fingers pointed towards the Muslim brotherhood. Protests and chants form but in my opinion won’t succeed. The deployment of the Egyptian military and its navy across Africa. 7. Nuclear and Intercontinental Iran. 8. New governments in Lebanon and Palestine pave the way for reform. 9. Without stating the obvious there is no such thing as a ceasefire. 10. Geological and financial crisis worldwide.
1 Jan 2025
Leaving this post here to revisit throughout the year. These are just predictions of the Middle East based on analysis. 1) We will use the word “replaced” more than word “elected” when it comes to leadership across the middle east. We will find it hard to distinguish between revolutions and coups. Families that were in power before will resurface in the news in countries such as Iraq, Egypt, Libya, Palestine and yes even Syria. 2) The hysteria that the Muslim world used in regard to Wilayat Al Fakih will now shift to the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood especially in Egypt and Jordan. 3) Unfortunately the same images that we saw in Beirut and the Dahya we could see in Sanaa Yemen. 4) The existential threat that the factions in Gaza used to launch October 7th will be used to launch a similar operation in the West Bank. 5) Iran will face its biggest test internally and will lead to it exerting its force externally. 6) Repeat of True Promise but this time in Lebanon. 7) After a brief scare of civil war adversaries in Lebanon and Palestine will put differences aside and rule together. 8) The prisoners that were promised to be released from Palestine will be released including Al Bargouthi. 9) Fist fights turn into hand shakes between Iran and the gulf countries. 10) The war in Lebanon in certain areas isn’t over.
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Sirens are blaring in Jordan..
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Jawad retweeted
Still collecting for the night viewers who did not see the post and would like to contribute anything. If you had like to donate, please directly message me, or send a reply for guidelines.
A person in the south far away from his displaced family needs help, if anyone would like to help please directly message me and support will directly reach them.
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After detecting low flying aircraft in the western sector of south Lebanon, the resistance has continued to fire surface to air missiles at Israeli jets.
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Merkava turned into Lava in Mjdal Zoun.
5 Merkava tanks are on fire after being targeted by drones and anti tank missiles in Mjdal Zoun. Clashes have been ongoing all day in the area.
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😂😂

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👇🏽
26 Jun 2025
The world doesn’t need politicians it needs revolutionaries.
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5 Merkava tanks are on fire after being targeted by drones and anti tank missiles in Mjdal Zoun. Clashes have been ongoing all day in the area.
Nabityah hasn’t fallen, and neither has Ali El Taher. The clashes are still concentrated around Kfar Tbineet. Separately the clashes have intensified in Mjdal Zoun near Zebqine valley in the Tyre district.
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If Qatar had put their goal keeper at Al Udaid base instead of those Patriots missiles maybe they would have actually stopped something.
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Israeli Broadcasting Authority: citing security sources: 🔴 The army is preparing to halt ground operations in Lebanon as part of the agreement currently being finalized between Washington and Tehran. 🔴 The army will not withdraw from the safe area in southern Lebanon under the agreement with Iran, and this will be discussed during the talks.
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Hezbollah Statement on the Clashes in Kafr Tibnit Following the monitoring of an infantry force affiliated with the occupation that attempted to infiltrate after midnight last night, under hours-long artillery and smoke cover, via the Arnoun-Zifta road in the direction of the crossing area on the outskirts of the town of Kafr Tibnit. The Resistance fighters lured it into a pre-prepared killing zone where explosive devices were detonated and clashes ensued with it using medium weaponry; then the Resistance's artillery unit executed concentrated strikes on the ambush area, forcing the enemy to withdraw
Nabityah hasn’t fallen, and neither has Ali El Taher. The clashes are still concentrated around Kfar Tbineet. Separately the clashes have intensified in Mjdal Zoun near Zebqine valley in the Tyre district.
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The next stage of the development of the 358 and 359 is figuring out how to incorporate it on MALE Drones. All the downed MQ-9, MQ-1 and now Heron that have been recovered in Lebanon and Iran will rapidly accelerate the process.

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The Al Jazeera correspondent captures a moment live where an Israeli tank is burning from a drone or guided missile strike in Yohmor Shqeef

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The anger from some regarding the MOU seems to come from 2 topics. 1. Rumored Concessions on the nuclear program. 2. Implementation on the stoppage of the war on all fronts.
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Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam calls on Hezbollah to support the direct negotiations with Israel. (Yes this was actually said)
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Nabityah hasn’t fallen, and neither has Ali El Taher. The clashes are still concentrated around Kfar Tbineet. Separately the clashes have intensified in Mjdal Zoun near Zebqine valley in the Tyre district.
The Islamic Resistance continues to counter the enemy's attempts to infiltrate towards Kafr Tabnit and Tala Al-Tahir, and target gatherings of soldiers and vehicles on the advance axes with rocket launchers and artillery shells.
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The Islamic Resistance continues to counter the enemy's attempts to infiltrate towards Kafr Tabnit and Tala Al-Tahir, and target gatherings of soldiers and vehicles on the advance axes with rocket launchers and artillery shells.
The push towards Ali El Taher has been ongoing today and so far has mostly been repelled. Attempts to advance on the Arnon-Al-Zafat and Al-Muasar axes continue, where a number of enemy vehicles have reached the interior of the town of Kafr Tubna, with attempts to advance towards the Ali Al-Tahir hill, coinciding with heavy artillery bombardment continuously targeting the area. In response, the Islamic Resistance continues to carry out counter-attacks and target gatherings of soldiers and vehicles on the advance axes with appropriate weapons. Nabatiyeh and the surrounding villages are being shelled very intensely from artillery and airstrikes in an attempt to provide cover to the enemy forces.
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Regarding the MOU, I could honestly careless what’s on paper. I care about its implementation and holding the other side accountable for the inevitable violations that will occur.
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Your prayers for the brave men of Jabal Amel.
The push towards Ali El Taher has been ongoing today and so far has mostly been repelled. Attempts to advance on the Arnon-Al-Zafat and Al-Muasar axes continue, where a number of enemy vehicles have reached the interior of the town of Kafr Tubna, with attempts to advance towards the Ali Al-Tahir hill, coinciding with heavy artillery bombardment continuously targeting the area. In response, the Islamic Resistance continues to carry out counter-attacks and target gatherings of soldiers and vehicles on the advance axes with appropriate weapons. Nabatiyeh and the surrounding villages are being shelled very intensely from artillery and airstrikes in an attempt to provide cover to the enemy forces.
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The push towards Ali El Taher has been ongoing today and so far has mostly been repelled. Attempts to advance on the Arnon-Al-Zafat and Al-Muasar axes continue, where a number of enemy vehicles have reached the interior of the town of Kafr Tubna, with attempts to advance towards the Ali Al-Tahir hill, coinciding with heavy artillery bombardment continuously targeting the area. In response, the Islamic Resistance continues to carry out counter-attacks and target gatherings of soldiers and vehicles on the advance axes with appropriate weapons. Nabatiyeh and the surrounding villages are being shelled very intensely from artillery and airstrikes in an attempt to provide cover to the enemy forces.
20 operations conducted against Israeli forces so far in south Lebanon, most concentrating around the Yohmor Al Shaqif axis as the Israelis are attempting to make a push towards the strategic hill of Ali El Taher in Nabityah.
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Ok The Emiratis flaunted a victory in this war (lol), but ended up not only eating 1000 missiles and drones but releasing what will be 25 billion dollars, and be included in the reconstruction efforts in Iran as well as reestablishing energy and economic ties all in exchange for an Iranian non aggression pact. 😂
I’ll reserve my thoughts until after the text of the agreement has been published by the Iranian foreign ministry.
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