My geopolitical predictions and analysis for 2026:
1. 110 years after Sykes-Picot we are facing a new project called the United Abrahamic States with its goal of partitioning existing countries based on sectarian and ethnic lines. The project is based on Israeli hegemony through occupation of land and natural resources.
2. Uprisings in Syria that will do more then spark annexation talks, a alawite state on the coast a durzi state in the south and a Kurdish state in the north. The momentum of annexation will spread to other countries forcing unusual alliances to form.
3. A youth movement in the Middle East. Leadership changes in Bahrain and Jordan. Hussein ibn Abdullah will be crowned king. Turkey will have a new president.
4. The rivalry between the UAE and Saudi Arabia will reach Saudi Arabia, MBS will face his biggest challenges internally after the death of Salman, and we may see a Ritz Carlton 2.0
5. 3 governments in Yemen
6. Attempts at destabilizing the regime in Egypt with fingers pointed towards the Muslim brotherhood. Protests and chants form but in my opinion won’t succeed. The deployment of the Egyptian military and its navy across Africa.
7. Nuclear and Intercontinental Iran.
8. New governments in Lebanon and Palestine pave the way for reform.
9. Without stating the obvious there is no such thing as a ceasefire.
10. Geological and financial crisis worldwide.
Leaving this post here to revisit throughout the year. These are just predictions of the Middle East based on analysis.
1) We will use the word “replaced” more than word “elected” when it comes to leadership across the middle east. We will find it hard to distinguish between revolutions and coups. Families that were in power before will resurface in the news in countries such as Iraq, Egypt, Libya, Palestine and yes even Syria.
2) The hysteria that the Muslim world used in regard to Wilayat Al Fakih will now shift to the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood especially in Egypt and Jordan.
3) Unfortunately the same images that we saw in Beirut and the Dahya we could see in Sanaa Yemen.
4) The existential threat that the factions in Gaza used to launch October 7th will be used to launch a similar operation in the West Bank.
5) Iran will face its biggest test internally and will lead to it exerting its force externally.
6) Repeat of True Promise but this time in Lebanon.
7) After a brief scare of civil war adversaries in Lebanon and Palestine will put differences aside and rule together.
8) The prisoners that were promised to be released from Palestine will be released including Al Bargouthi.
9) Fist fights turn into hand shakes between Iran and the gulf countries.
10) The war in Lebanon in certain areas isn’t over.