Hereโs my competing thoughts about this MOU with Iranโฆ
The fact that we are making a deal without unconditional surrender from Iran is a problem. Losing looks like losing.
Making a terrible deal is terrible no matter how much pressure is on you.
You either accept peace on your terms from a position of power, or you capitulate and make a deal that looks like a loss to anyone paying attention.
Now that Iโve griped a bit and assumed this is exactly what it looks like, letโs talk nuance.
This isnโt the final treaty, of course, so there is room for changes, demands, and even the old โgive them enough rope to hang themselves withโ mentality (yes, I get it, such would be silly from any logical perspective).
I donโt love these possibilities because it makes it seem like we are the ones pushing for peace without our goals being met.
We obviously donโt have the full picture, not most of us opining (and we wonโt without clearance and a need to know), so I still think it is important to trust that Trump will fulfill the requirements he pushed at the beginning of this conflict.
The Unconventional Warfare aspect is the one I keep going back to, because it is the most important aspect and because it has the best chance at success without putting conventional boots on the ground.
The problem is that UW takes timeโฆ especially if the entire ecosystem has to be set up from relative scratch.
If nothing else good comes from all of this, the ultra denied aspect of Iran has at least been weakened enough to allow for an insurgency to have a real shot at success.
UW couldnโt have happened before the 13,000 sorties.
It can now.
I wish this was a faster process and that we had some confirmation, but it is not fast and if we knew, so would the IRGC.
Large aspects of UW happen in the shadows for a reason.
Also, sometimes certain plans require a public action that doesnโt make sense at the time to those on the outside looking in, but could be exactly what was required.
Again, we simply donโt have all of the answers.
If it turns out how it looks without any underlying rationale, then Iโm pretty disappointed.
If itโs a ploy to move us forward to a place we need to be for the regime to collapse from the inside, then I will nod my hat in praise.
Until then, I have to have faith in the administration and the important people that hopefully understand what is at stake.