Joined November 2022
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24 Nov 2025
How would a National Popular Vote or Campaign Spending Caps alter U.S. elections?
My JMP develops a structural model to evaluate these reforms by solving the strategic feedback loop between voters and campaigns. 🧵 (1/8)
#EconJobMarket
lukebmiller.github.io/files/…
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24 Nov 2025
Counterfactual 3: A National Popular Vote
Under an NPV, every vote adds to the national tally. This triggers a double boost in "safe" states:
Effort: Campaigns stop ignoring them.
Efficacy: Voters finally see their ballot as pivotal.
Result: 5 million votes nationally. (7/8)
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24 Nov 2025
Turnout isn't just motivation or mobilization. It is an equilibrium of both.
To evaluate reforms, we need tools that account for how voters and campaigns react to each other.
Paper: lukebmiller.github.io/files/…
Website:
lukebmiller.github.io
🎓 I'm on the 2025-26 Job Market.(8/8)
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