Ideologically sound argument, however, relocating and establishing manufacturing operations in the U.S. takes years. Additionally, labor costs in the U.S. are substantially higher compared to Asia. Even after accounting for tariffs, it remains more cost-effective to produce goods overseas. The idea that tariffs alone will drive companies to reshore production, boost domestic output, and increase tax revenue is fundamentally flawed. Bottom line: while leveling the playing field makes sense, quantifying revenue from onshoring companies back to the U.S. is a futile exercise and must be taken with a grain of salt. There is a significant duration mismatch between reality and expectations, with a large margin for error that remains unaccounted for.

Yes, my timeline looks rough and sentiment is weak. #macro #credit #spx But smart money is far too bullish given the backdrop: – US driven systemic execution risk – Tariffs expire end-July – Summer liquidity is thin We may grind for now, but vol should spike well before then.

Unpopular opinion: Western ideology is in disarray because it expends a disproportionate amount of energy trying to please the 1% of the hypersensitive population. #Macro #BRICS #USA #Elections2024 #Politics

$MSTR $BTC The advantage of issuing convertible bonds as a corporate are many. It is not a coincidence the vast majority of new issues are non-investment grade, particularly in the US. Here are some of those advantages: 1. You get to sell your equity at a premium. In MSTRs case, Saylor's genius move is he's selling stock at a 40-50% > current spot prices. But - MSTR has already rallied 200% this year... 2. Because of its hybrid nature, it is more flexible for balance sheet widow dressing. 3. You get to issue bonds with lower coupons than if you were issuing straight debt. Why? because in exchange you're giving investors "equity upside" 4. You dont need to get your bonds rated. The majority of converts that come to issue don't. 5. unfriendly Covenants around convertibility - ALWAYS check the prospectus. 6. Option to call the bonds early, forcing investors to put the bonds in for conversion - thereby prematurely killing the premium optionality a bond holder was expecting over time. Make no mistake about it, Retail bros have no idea about the inherent risks of buying the stock at current valuations... It's important to spread the word so everyone has a more informed view before making any decisions. If you like this stuff, pls share...

In recent yrs, #Bitcoin exhibited a strong correlation with interest rates and risk assets. However, this correlation has decoupled the past few months, particularly vs rates. Typically, an increase in real rates would lead to a decline in Bitcoin, given its lack of cash-producing attributes. Instead, the opposite has been happening, indicating a growing endorsement of Bitcoin as a store of value amidst growing macro systemic uncertainty. Remember: #GOLD mkt cap = c. $11 trillion #BTC mkt cap = c. $1 trillion. If BTC takes just 25% of Gold’s market share, it’s market cap increases to c. $2.5 trillion... Puts price at $120k per coin all else being equal and not accounting for idiosyncratic Bitcoin specific news (ordinals etc.) Boomers are already piling in to pre-position for the halving. ETF numbers are nothing short of spectacular vs anything we’ve ever seen in the ETF space, in any asset class, ever. Wouldn’t you want to hedge some of your bets by owning the hardest form of money ever created? Endorsed by the likes of Blackrock/Fidelity and others? Don't be the pleb that misses the bigger picture because of short term gains. The FOMO hasn’t even kicked in yet – that will come after breaking ATH. This game-theory 101 unravelling at its very best, and governments haven't even started buying yet.. #BTC

The pain trade is new ATH pre halving… “Cycles” are no longer as relevant. its going to be a hell of a ride. #BTC

ETF investor base doesnt care about random lines drawn by retail CT influencers. Capo and the rest of the so called OG TA astrologists cater to retail plebs desperate for advice… Dont fall prey to their bullshit. Fundamentals are in town. Thanks for playing. #BTC $IBIT

Op-ed: A holistic view of #China 's trajectory in the context of an #EconomicGrowth slump now available: macrowizard.substack.com/p/c… #Macro #Beijing #BRICS2023 #XiJinping #investing #Military #PLA #markets